AI Football Tips: Serie B round 25

The 25th round of Serie B is an exciting one with many matches that will determine the future of the league! Let’s dive into the first and last match for this round, including the date and prediction (1X2) from the table. First Match: Brescia vs Salernitana on February 7th, 2025 Prediction: H Last Match: Spezia vs Palermo on February 9th, 2025.

Date League Home Team Away Team Prediction Asian
2025-02-07 Serie B Brescia Salernitana H -0.25
2025-02-08 Serie B Cosenza Carrarese H -0.25
2025-02-08 Serie B Pisa Cittadella H 1X2
2025-02-08 Serie B Frosinone Catanzaro H -0.25
2025-02-08 Serie B Mantova Sassuolo A 1X2
2025-02-08 Serie B Sampdoria Modena H 0
2025-02-09 Serie B Reggiana Cesena H -0.25
2025-02-09 Serie B Cremonese Südtirol H 1X2
2025-02-09 Serie B Spezia Palermo H 1X2
2025-02-09 Serie B Juve Stabia Bari H -0.25

The table below shows the percentage of matches with over 2.5 goal for the home team at home, and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team Home +2.5(%) Away +2.5 (%) Target odds +2.5
2025-02-07 Brescia Salernitana 50 27 2.59
2025-02-08 Cosenza Carrarese 17 50 3.00
2025-02-08 Pisa Cittadella 67 50 1.71
2025-02-08 Frosinone Catanzaro 50 36 2.32
2025-02-08 Mantova Sassuolo 36 50 2.32
2025-02-08 Sampdoria Modena 25 42 3.00
2025-02-09 Reggiana Cesena 42 50 2.18
2025-02-09 Cremonese Südtirol 33 50 2.40
2025-02-09 Spezia Palermo 55 50 1.91
2025-02-09 Juve Stabia Bari 55 18 2.75

BTS (Both Teams to Score) is a popular betting market in sports, especially in soccer. In a BTS bet, you’re wagering on whether both teams in a match will score at least one goal each. The table below shows the BTS stats for the home team at home and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team BTS Home (%) BTS Away (%) BTS Target
2025-02-07 Brescia Salernitana 67 36 1.94
2025-02-08 Cosenza Carrarese 50 58 1.85
2025-02-08 Pisa Cittadella 58 33 2.18
2025-02-08 Frosinone Catanzaro 42 64 1.90
2025-02-08 Mantova Sassuolo 45 67 1.78
2025-02-08 Sampdoria Modena 33 58 2.18
2025-02-09 Reggiana Cesena 42 58 2.00
2025-02-09 Cremonese Südtirol 67 25 2.18
2025-02-09 Spezia Palermo 55 58 1.77
2025-02-09 Juve Stabia Bari 55 36 2.20

The table below shows the goal averages for each encounter based on home teams average performance (goals scored and conceded) at home, and away teams average performance away. We use poisson distribution to calculate probabilities for over and under 2.5 goal. For your convienence we have converted the probabilities to decimal odds.

Date Home Team Away Team Goal Avg. +2.5 target odds -2.5 target odds
2025-02-07 Brescia Salernitana 2.66 2.01 1.99
2025-02-08 Cosenza Carrarese 2.12 2.81 1.55
2025-02-08 Pisa Cittadella 2.66 2.01 1.99
2025-02-08 Frosinone Catanzaro 2.34 2.41 1.71
2025-02-08 Mantova Sassuolo 2.55 2.13 1.88
2025-02-08 Sampdoria Modena 2.12 2.81 1.55
2025-02-09 Reggiana Cesena 2.42 2.30 1.77
2025-02-09 Cremonese Südtirol 2.46 2.24 1.80
2025-02-09 Spezia Palermo 2.49 2.20 1.83
2025-02-09 Juve Stabia Bari 1.96 3.20 1.45

We also have calculated the average goals scored and conceded for the teams. See the table below.

Team Home Goals Home Conceded Away Goals Away Conceded
Sassuolo 2.67 1.00 1.75 1.08
Pisa 2.00 0.75 1.25 1.00
Spezia 2.00 0.64 1.23 0.62
Cremonese 1.17 1.17 1.67 0.92
Catanzaro 1.46 0.92 1.18 1.18
Cesena 1.67 1.17 1.00 1.67
Brescia 1.67 1.67 0.92 1.17
Modena 1.50 1.00 1.08 1.50
Mantova 1.27 1.00 1.15 1.77
Sampdoria 0.75 0.92 1.58 2.00
Südtirol 1.25 1.75 1.08 1.50
Bari 1.38 1.08 0.82 0.73
Juve Stabia 1.18 1.18 0.92 1.15
Palermo 1.00 0.67 1.08 1.25
Reggiana 1.08 1.08 0.92 1.25
Salernitana 1.31 1.31 0.55 1.45
Cosenza 0.75 1.00 1.08 1.50
Carrarese 1.00 0.75 0.75 1.75
Cittadella 0.83 1.08 0.83 1.75
Frosinone 0.83 1.50 0.75 1.50

No football stats for betting is complete without the famous xGoal. Haven’t heard of xGoals? Here’s the gist: xGoals measure the quality of chances a team creates. Think of every shot as a lottery ticket; some are a sure shot like a penalty kick, others are more like trying to score from the halfway line with your eyes closed. xGoals assigns a probability to each shot based on factors like distance, angle, and whether the goalkeeper was busy tying his shoelaces. So, when you see a team with an xG of 2.5, it means that, based on the quality of their chances, they were “expected” to score 2.5 goals
The median goal  provides a stable measure of a team’s typical scoring performance. Unlike the mean, which can be influenced by outliers, the median is robust and useful for predicting future performance. Please see the table below for the teams median performance regarding Xgoal at home or away, respectively.

Date Home Team Away Team Median Home Median Away
2025-02-07 Brescia Salernitana 2.65 1.60
2025-02-08 Cosenza Carrarese 2.05 2.45
2025-02-08 Pisa Cittadella 2.75 2.15
2025-02-08 Frosinone Catanzaro 2.50 2.80
2025-02-08 Mantova Sassuolo 2.00 2.65
2025-02-08 Sampdoria Modena 1.95 2.25
2025-02-09 Reggiana Cesena 1.95 2.55
2025-02-09 Cremonese Südtirol 2.05 2.25
2025-02-09 Spezia Palermo 2.40 2.05
2025-02-09 Juve Stabia Bari 2.10 2.60