AI Football Tips: Bundesliga round 21

Get ready for another thrilling round of Bundesliga action! The intensity is building as we approach week 21, and the stakes are high for every team vying for a coveted spot in the coveted top flight. With passionate fans filling the stadiums across Germany, this weekend promises to be a feast of footballing drama. Kick off your excitement with the highly anticipated clash between **Holstein Kiel** and **Bochum** on **February 9th**. The underdog spirit will be alive as both teams are looking to pull off an upset! Will Holstein Kiel secure a home victory? We’ll find out soon enough. As we reach the final day of this exciting round, another thrilling encounter awaits as **RB Leipzig** hosts **St. Pauli**. This matchup is sure to deliver fireworks as both sides strive for a crucial win. The atmosphere in the stadium will be electric as RB Leipzig seeks its home advantage! Let’s dive into these matches and see who emerges victorious!
In the table below you will find our AI prediccions for Bundesliga round 21. Asian refers to the recomended asian handicap line.

Date League Home Team Away Team Prediction Asian
2025-02-07 Bundesliga Bayern Munich Werder Bremen H No bet
2025-02-08 Bundesliga Freiburg Heidenheim H 1X2
2025-02-08 Bundesliga Mainz 05 Augsburg H 1X2
2025-02-08 Bundesliga Wolfsburg Leverkusen A 1X2
2025-02-08 Bundesliga Dortmund Stuttgart H 1X2
2025-02-08 Bundesliga Hoffenheim Union Berlin H 1X2
2025-02-08 Bundesliga Gladbach Eint Frankfurt H 0
2025-02-09 Bundesliga Holstein Kiel Bochum H -0.25
2025-02-09 Bundesliga RB Leipzig St. Pauli H 1X2

The table below shows the percentage of matches with over 2.5 goal for the home team at home, and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team Home +2.5(%) Away +2.5 (%) Target odds +2.5
2025-02-07 Bayern Munich Werder Bremen 80 70 1.33
2025-02-08 Freiburg Heidenheim 89 60 1.34
2025-02-08 Mainz 05 Augsburg 30 60 2.22
2025-02-08 Wolfsburg Leverkusen 80 67 1.36
2025-02-08 Dortmund Stuttgart 70 67 1.46
2025-02-08 Hoffenheim Union Berlin 70 40 1.82
2025-02-08 Gladbach Eint Frankfurt 60 70 1.54
2025-02-09 Holstein Kiel Bochum 60 50 1.82
2025-02-09 RB Leipzig St. Pauli 67 40 1.87

BTS (Both Teams to Score) is a popular betting market in sports, especially in soccer. In a BTS bet, you’re wagering on whether both teams in a match will score at least one goal each. The table below shows the BTS stats for the home team at home and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team BTS Home (%) BTS Away (%) BTS Target
2025-02-07 Bayern Munich Werder Bremen 50 70 1.67
2025-02-08 Freiburg Heidenheim 78 60 1.45
2025-02-08 Mainz 05 Augsburg 50 50 2.00
2025-02-08 Wolfsburg Leverkusen 90 89 1.12
2025-02-08 Dortmund Stuttgart 80 56 1.48
2025-02-08 Hoffenheim Union Berlin 80 30 1.82
2025-02-08 Gladbach Eint Frankfurt 60 70 1.54
2025-02-09 Holstein Kiel Bochum 50 40 2.22
2025-02-09 RB Leipzig St. Pauli 56 30 2.34

The table below shows the goal averages for each encounter based on home teams average performance (goals scored and conceded) at home, and away teams average performance away. We use poisson distribution to calculate probabilities for over and under 2.5 goal. For your convienence we have converted the probabilities to decimal odds.

Date Home Team Away Team Goal Avg. +2.5 target odds -2.5 target odds
2025-02-07 Bayern Munich Werder Bremen 4.10 1.29 4.47
2025-02-08 Freiburg Heidenheim 3.72 1.39 3.55
2025-02-08 Mainz 05 Augsburg 2.85 1.84 2.19
2025-02-08 Wolfsburg Leverkusen 3.88 1.34 3.90
2025-02-08 Dortmund Stuttgart 3.35 1.54 2.86
2025-02-08 Hoffenheim Union Berlin 3.20 1.61 2.63
2025-02-08 Gladbach Eint Frankfurt 3.30 1.56 2.78
2025-02-09 Holstein Kiel Bochum 3.60 1.43 3.30
2025-02-09 RB Leipzig St. Pauli 2.66 2.01 1.99

We also have calculated the average goals scored and conceded for the teams. See the table below.

Team Home Goals Home Conceded Away Goals Away Conceded
Bayern Munich 3.40 0.90 2.80 1.00
Leverkusen 2.64 1.36 2.22 1.33
Eint Frankfurt 2.60 1.30 1.90 1.40
Wolfsburg 2.10 2.10 2.20 1.40
Stuttgart 2.27 1.36 1.33 1.67
Dortmund 2.40 1.30 1.20 2.10
Werder Bremen 1.40 1.70 2.00 1.90
RB Leipzig 1.89 1.22 1.55 1.64
Mainz 05 1.40 1.00 1.90 1.40
Gladbach 2.10 1.20 1.10 1.80
Holstein Kiel 1.40 2.50 1.70 2.70
Freiburg 2.00 1.44 0.82 2.09
Hoffenheim 1.80 2.20 0.80 1.80
Heidenheim 0.90 1.80 1.60 2.40
Augsburg 1.40 1.20 1.00 2.30
St. Pauli 0.70 1.10 1.10 1.10
Bochum 1.00 1.80 0.80 2.50
Union Berlin 0.90 1.00 0.60 1.80

No football stats for betting is complete without the famous xGoal. Haven’t heard of xGoals? Here’s the gist: xGoals measure the quality of chances a team creates. Think of every shot as a lottery ticket; some are a sure shot like a penalty kick, others are more like trying to score from the halfway line with your eyes closed. xGoals assigns a probability to each shot based on factors like distance, angle, and whether the goalkeeper was busy tying his shoelaces. So, when you see a team with an xG of 2.5, it means that, based on the quality of their chances, they were “expected” to score 2.5 goals
The median goal  provides a stable measure of a team’s typical scoring performance. Unlike the mean, which can be influenced by outliers, the median is robust and useful for predicting future performance. Please see the table below for the teams median performance regarding Xgoal at home or away, respectively.

Date Home Team Away Team Median Home Median Away
2025-02-07 Bayern Munich Werder Bremen 3.60 2.55
2025-02-08 Freiburg Heidenheim 2.20 2.75
2025-02-08 Mainz 05 Augsburg 2.45 2.15
2025-02-08 Wolfsburg Leverkusen 3.40 2.20
2025-02-08 Dortmund Stuttgart 2.80 3.40
2025-02-08 Hoffenheim Union Berlin 3.35 2.20
2025-02-08 Gladbach Eint Frankfurt 3.40 3.50
2025-02-09 Holstein Kiel Bochum 2.50 3.35
2025-02-09 RB Leipzig St. Pauli 2.40 2.30