AI Football Tips: Ligue 1 round 21

Get ready for a thrilling Ligue 1 showdown as we delve into round 21! The tension is palpable as these teams battle it out for supremacy in this fiercely contested league known for its unpredictable twists and turns. The action kicks off on February 9th with Lyon facing off against Reims, while Auxerre takes on Toulouse later that same day. Stay tuned for a heart-stopping finish to the round where Angers will lock horns with Marseille!
In the table below you will find our AI prediccions for Ligue 1 round 21. Asian refers to the recomended asian handicap line.

Date League Home Team Away Team Prediction Asian
2025-02-07 Ligue 1 Nantes Brest H 0
2025-02-07 Ligue 1 Paris S-G Monaco H No bet
2025-02-08 Ligue 1 Nice Lens H -0.25
2025-02-08 Ligue 1 Lille Le Havre H No bet
2025-02-08 Ligue 1 Saint-Étienne Rennes H +0.25
2025-02-09 Ligue 1 Lyon Reims H 1X2
2025-02-09 Ligue 1 Auxerre Toulouse A -0.25
2025-02-09 Ligue 1 Strasbourg Montpellier H 1X2
2025-02-09 Ligue 1 Angers Marseille A 1X2

The table below shows the percentage of matches with over 2.5 goal for the home team at home, and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team Home +2.5(%) Away +2.5 (%) Target odds +2.5
2025-02-07 Nantes Brest 44 70 1.75
2025-02-07 Paris S-G Monaco 70 78 1.35
2025-02-08 Nice Lens 67 30 2.07
2025-02-08 Lille Le Havre 60 30 2.22
2025-02-08 Saint-Étienne Rennes 22 67 2.25
2025-02-09 Lyon Reims 44 67 1.80
2025-02-09 Auxerre Toulouse 60 33 2.14
2025-02-09 Strasbourg Montpellier 67 56 1.64
2025-02-09 Angers Marseille 50 70 1.67

BTS (Both Teams to Score) is a popular betting market in sports, especially in soccer. In a BTS bet, you’re wagering on whether both teams in a match will score at least one goal each. The table below shows the BTS stats for the home team at home and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team BTS Home (%) BTS Away (%) BTS Target
2025-02-07 Nantes Brest 67 60 1.58
2025-02-07 Paris S-G Monaco 70 67 1.46
2025-02-08 Nice Lens 78 50 1.57
2025-02-08 Lille Le Havre 80 50 1.54
2025-02-08 Saint-Étienne Rennes 33 67 2.00
2025-02-09 Lyon Reims 44 67 1.80
2025-02-09 Auxerre Toulouse 40 22 3.21
2025-02-09 Strasbourg Montpellier 78 33 1.80
2025-02-09 Angers Marseille 60 60 1.67

The table below shows the goal averages for each encounter based on home teams average performance (goals scored and conceded) at home, and away teams average performance away. We use poisson distribution to calculate probabilities for over and under 2.5 goal. For your convienence we have converted the probabilities to decimal odds.

Date Home Team Away Team Goal Avg. +2.5 target odds -2.5 target odds
2025-02-07 Nantes Brest 2.83 1.86 2.16
2025-02-07 Paris S-G Monaco 3.14 1.65 2.55
2025-02-08 Nice Lens 2.93 1.78 2.28
2025-02-08 Lille Le Havre 2.90 1.80 2.24
2025-02-08 Saint-Étienne Rennes 2.72 1.96 2.05
2025-02-09 Lyon Reims 2.84 1.85 2.17
2025-02-09 Auxerre Toulouse 2.15 2.75 1.57
2025-02-09 Strasbourg Montpellier 2.89 1.81 2.23
2025-02-09 Angers Marseille 3.40 1.51 2.94

We also have calculated the average goals scored and conceded for the teams. See the table below.

Team Home Goals Home Conceded Away Goals Away Conceded
Paris S-G 2.70 0.80 2.70 1.10
Marseille 1.80 1.50 2.50 1.00
Nice 2.56 1.00 1.45 1.55
Monaco 1.91 1.27 1.67 1.11
Strasbourg 1.78 1.11 1.55 2.00
Lille 2.00 1.20 1.30 0.80
Lyon 1.78 1.22 1.45 1.36
Brest 2.10 1.50 1.00 2.10
Rennes 1.73 0.82 0.89 2.33
Auxerre 1.50 0.80 1.20 2.50
Reims 1.18 1.64 1.44 1.22
Lens 1.00 1.00 1.50 0.80
Nantes 1.22 1.33 1.18 1.64
Angers 1.40 1.90 0.80 1.00
Toulouse 1.18 1.09 0.89 1.11
Montpellier 1.36 2.27 0.56 2.33
Saint-Étienne 1.22 1.00 0.73 3.09
Le Havre 0.60 2.20 0.90 1.70

No football stats for betting is complete without the famous xGoal. Haven’t heard of xGoals? Here’s the gist: xGoals measure the quality of chances a team creates. Think of every shot as a lottery ticket; some are a sure shot like a penalty kick, others are more like trying to score from the halfway line with your eyes closed. xGoals assigns a probability to each shot based on factors like distance, angle, and whether the goalkeeper was busy tying his shoelaces. So, when you see a team with an xG of 2.5, it means that, based on the quality of their chances, they were “expected” to score 2.5 goals
The median goal  provides a stable measure of a team’s typical scoring performance. Unlike the mean, which can be influenced by outliers, the median is robust and useful for predicting future performance. Please see the table below for the teams median performance regarding Xgoal at home or away, respectively.

Date Home Team Away Team Median Home Median Away
2025-02-07 Nantes Brest 2.20 3.50
2025-02-07 Paris S-G Monaco 3.85 2.60
2025-02-08 Nice Lens 2.60 2.30
2025-02-08 Lille Le Havre 2.75 2.15
2025-02-08 Saint-Étienne Rennes 2.40 2.60
2025-02-09 Lyon Reims 3.20 2.50
2025-02-09 Auxerre Toulouse 1.95 2.50
2025-02-09 Strasbourg Montpellier 2.30 2.40
2025-02-09 Angers Marseille 2.85 2.50