AI Football Tips: Serie A round 22

Get ready for a thrilling round of Serie A action as we delve into the heart of Italy’s top flight! The atmosphere is electric as 22 teams battle it out for supremacy, with each fixture carrying its own weight and drama. This season has been packed with surprises and unforgettable moments, and Round 22 promises to deliver another dose of exhilarating football. To kick things off, we have a clash between Venezia and Hellas Verona on January 27th. Will the hosts maintain their home advantage or will Verona snatch an unexpected victory? Then, later that same day, Genoa will welcome Monza to their stadium, hoping for a win against their opponents who are hungry for success. These matches are sure to ignite passion across Italy and beyond.
In the table below you will find our AI prediccions for Serie A round 22. Asian refers to the recomended asian handicap line.

Date League Home Team Away Team Prediction Asian
2025-01-24 Serie A Torino Cagliari A +0.5
2025-01-25 Serie A Como Atalanta A 1X2
2025-01-25 Serie A Napoli Juventus H 1X2
2025-01-25 Serie A Empoli Bologna A 1X2
2025-01-26 Serie A Milan Parma H No bet
2025-01-26 Serie A Udinese Roma A -0.25
2025-01-26 Serie A Lecce Inter A No bet
2025-01-26 Serie A Lazio Fiorentina H 1X2
2025-01-27 Serie A Venezia Hellas Verona A +0.25
2025-01-27 Serie A Genoa Monza H -0.25

The table below shows the percentage of matches with over 2.5 goal for the home team at home, and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team Home +2.5(%) Away +2.5 (%)
2025-01-24 Torino Cagliari 20 50
2025-01-25 Como Atalanta 50 45
2025-01-25 Napoli Juventus 40 40
2025-01-25 Empoli Bologna 30 80
2025-01-26 Milan Parma 40 60
2025-01-26 Udinese Roma 40 30
2025-01-26 Lecce Inter 50 67
2025-01-26 Lazio Fiorentina 80 40
2025-01-27 Venezia Hellas Verona 40 60
2025-01-27 Genoa Monza 45 50

BTS (Both Teams to Score) is a popular betting market in sports, especially in soccer. In a BTS bet, you’re wagering on whether both teams in a match will score at least one goal each. The table below shows the BTS stats for the home team at home and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team BTS Home (%) BTS Away (%) BTS Target
2025-01-24 Torino Cagliari 40 70 1.82
2025-01-25 Como Atalanta 70 36 1.88
2025-01-25 Napoli Juventus 20 50 2.86
2025-01-25 Empoli Bologna 30 60 2.22
2025-01-26 Milan Parma 30 60 2.22
2025-01-26 Udinese Roma 40 60 2.00
2025-01-26 Lecce Inter 50 33 2.40
2025-01-26 Lazio Fiorentina 70 40 1.82
2025-01-27 Venezia Hellas Verona 50 60 1.82
2025-01-27 Genoa Monza 55 60 1.75

The table below shows the goal averages for each encounter based on home teams average performance (goals scored and conceded) at home, and away teams average performance away. We use poisson distribution to calculate probabilities for over and under 2.5 goal. For your convienence we have converted the probabilities to decimal odds.

Date Home Team Away Team Goal Avg. +2.5 target odds -2.5 target odds
2025-01-24 Torino Cagliari 2.15 2.75 1.57
2025-01-25 Como Atalanta 2.88 1.82 2.22
2025-01-25 Napoli Juventus 2.30 2.48 1.68
2025-01-25 Empoli Bologna 2.45 2.26 1.80
2025-01-26 Milan Parma 2.35 2.40 1.72
2025-01-26 Udinese Roma 2.40 2.32 1.76
2025-01-26 Lecce Inter 2.96 1.76 2.31
2025-01-26 Lazio Fiorentina 2.90 1.80 2.24
2025-01-27 Venezia Hellas Verona 2.95 1.77 2.30
2025-01-27 Genoa Monza 2.43 2.28 1.78

We also have calculated the average goals scored and conceded for the teams. See the table below.

Team Home Goals Home Conceded Away Goals Away Conceded
Inter 2.36 1.18 2.78 0.56
Atalanta 2.80 1.50 1.64 0.82
Lazio 1.90 1.40 1.64 1.27
Napoli 1.50 0.60 1.82 0.73
Fiorentina 1.70 1.20 1.60 0.90
Juventus 1.55 0.82 1.70 0.80
Bologna 1.50 0.90 1.70 1.70
Roma 2.09 1.00 0.80 1.60
Milan 1.50 0.60 1.40 1.50
Como 1.70 1.60 0.82 1.64
Parma 1.55 1.73 0.90 1.70
Udinese 1.10 1.30 1.18 1.73
Hellas Verona 1.00 2.27 1.30 2.20
Cagliari 1.09 1.73 1.10 1.50
Torino 0.70 1.00 1.27 1.45
Empoli 0.40 1.10 1.45 1.55
Monza 0.91 1.45 1.00 1.50
Venezia 1.10 1.30 0.73 1.91
Genoa 0.91 1.45 0.80 1.40
Lecce 0.90 1.70 0.55 1.73

No football stats for betting is complete without the famous xGoal. Haven’t heard of xGoals? Here’s the gist: xGoals measure the quality of chances a team creates. Think of every shot as a lottery ticket; some are a sure shot like a penalty kick, others are more like trying to score from the halfway line with your eyes closed. xGoals assigns a probability to each shot based on factors like distance, angle, and whether the goalkeeper was busy tying his shoelaces. So, when you see a team with an xG of 2.5, it means that, based on the quality of their chances, they were “expected” to score 2.5 goals
The median goal  provides a stable measure of a team’s typical scoring performance. Unlike the mean, which can be influenced by outliers, the median is robust and useful for predicting future performance. Please see the table below for the teams median performance regarding Xgoal at home or away, respectively.

Date Home Team Away Team Median Home Median Away
2025-01-24 Torino Cagliari 2.05 2.65
2025-01-25 Como Atalanta 2.25 2.30
2025-01-25 Napoli Juventus 2.15 1.90
2025-01-25 Empoli Bologna 1.50 1.95
2025-01-26 Milan Parma 2.20 2.05
2025-01-26 Udinese Roma 2.15 2.20
2025-01-26 Lecce Inter 2.95 2.30
2025-01-26 Lazio Fiorentina 2.75 1.90
2025-01-27 Venezia Hellas Verona 1.80 2.60
2025-01-27 Genoa Monza 2.40 1.80