AI Football Tips: Ligue 1 round 19

Get ready for a thrilling Ligue 1 showdown! The intensity is building as we approach round 19, a crucial juncture in the season where every point counts. The heart of French football will be pulsating with anticipation as teams clash on the pitch in pursuit of victory. Buckle up and witness some of the league’s most exciting matchups this weekend. First up on our list is a fiery encounter between **Nice** and **Marseille**, taking place on January 26th. The hosts, Nice will be looking to make their home advantage count. Will they secure a win over their rivals in what promises to be a fierce battle? The final fixture of round 19 sees **Toulouse** and **Montpellier** face off on the same day. Can Toulouse pull off an upset against this tough opponent? This is just a glimpse into the action awaiting us in Round 19 of Ligue 1! Get ready for a weekend packed with drama, skill, and unforgettable moments.
In the table below you will find our AI prediccions for Ligue 1 round 19. Asian refers to the recomended asian handicap line.

Date League Home Team Away Team Prediction Asian
2025-01-24 Ligue 1 Auxerre Saint-Étienne H 1X2
2025-01-25 Ligue 1 Monaco Rennes H 1X2
2025-01-25 Ligue 1 Strasbourg Lille H 0
2025-01-25 Ligue 1 Paris S-G Reims H No bet
2025-01-26 Ligue 1 Le Havre Brest H +0.25
2025-01-26 Ligue 1 Lens Angers H No bet
2025-01-26 Ligue 1 Nantes Lyon H +0.25
2025-01-26 Ligue 1 Toulouse Montpellier H 1X2
2025-01-26 Ligue 1 Nice Marseille H 0

The table below shows the percentage of matches with over 2.5 goal for the home team at home, and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team Home +2.5(%) Away +2.5 (%)
2025-01-24 Auxerre Saint-Étienne 67 78
2025-01-25 Monaco Rennes 44 62
2025-01-25 Strasbourg Lille 62 33
2025-01-25 Paris S-G Reims 78 75
2025-01-26 Le Havre Brest 78 78
2025-01-26 Lens Angers 33 11
2025-01-26 Nantes Lyon 50 67
2025-01-26 Toulouse Montpellier 44 50
2025-01-26 Nice Marseille 75 78

BTS (Both Teams to Score) is a popular betting market in sports, especially in soccer. In a BTS bet, you’re wagering on whether both teams in a match will score at least one goal each. The table below shows the BTS stats for the home team at home and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team BTS Home (%) BTS Away (%) BTS Target
2025-01-24 Auxerre Saint-Étienne 33 44 2.57
2025-01-25 Monaco Rennes 56 62 1.69
2025-01-25 Strasbourg Lille 75 33 1.85
2025-01-25 Paris S-G Reims 67 62 1.55
2025-01-26 Le Havre Brest 33 67 2.00
2025-01-26 Lens Angers 33 44 2.57
2025-01-26 Nantes Lyon 62 56 1.69
2025-01-26 Toulouse Montpellier 56 25 2.48
2025-01-26 Nice Marseille 88 67 1.30

The table below shows the goal averages for each encounter based on home teams average performance (goals scored and conceded) at home, and away teams average performance away. We use poisson distribution to calculate probabilities for over and under 2.5 goal. For your convienence we have converted the probabilities to decimal odds.

Date Home Team Away Team Goal Avg. +2.5 target odds -2.5 target odds
2025-01-24 Auxerre Saint-Étienne 3.11 1.66 2.51
2025-01-25 Monaco Rennes 2.84 1.85 2.17
2025-01-25 Strasbourg Lille 2.44 2.27 1.79
2025-01-25 Paris S-G Reims 3.21 1.61 2.65
2025-01-26 Le Havre Brest 3.16 1.63 2.58
2025-01-26 Lens Angers 2.00 3.09 1.48
2025-01-26 Nantes Lyon 2.64 2.03 1.97
2025-01-26 Toulouse Montpellier 2.55 2.13 1.88
2025-01-26 Nice Marseille 3.71 1.40 3.52

We also have calculated the average goals scored and conceded for the teams. See the table below.

Team Home Goals Home Conceded Away Goals Away Conceded
Paris S-G 2.89 0.78 2.44 1.00
Marseille 1.67 1.44 2.78 0.89
Nice 2.62 1.12 1.50 1.60
Strasbourg 1.75 1.12 1.70 2.10
Lyon 1.78 1.22 1.44 1.22
Monaco 1.56 1.11 1.67 1.11
Brest 2.11 1.11 1.00 2.33
Lille 1.78 1.22 1.33 0.67
Rennes 1.80 0.90 0.75 2.25
Auxerre 1.56 0.78 1.11 2.33
Reims 1.20 1.60 1.50 1.25
Lens 1.00 1.11 1.44 0.89
Angers 1.44 2.00 0.89 1.00
Nantes 1.25 1.38 1.10 1.70
Toulouse 1.22 1.00 0.89 1.11
Montpellier 1.50 2.30 0.38 2.50
Saint-Étienne 1.22 1.00 0.67 3.22
Le Havre 0.67 2.33 0.89 1.78

No football stats for betting is complete without the famous xGoal. Haven’t heard of xGoals? Here’s the gist: xGoals measure the quality of chances a team creates. Think of every shot as a lottery ticket; some are a sure shot like a penalty kick, others are more like trying to score from the halfway line with your eyes closed. xGoals assigns a probability to each shot based on factors like distance, angle, and whether the goalkeeper was busy tying his shoelaces. So, when you see a team with an xG of 2.5, it means that, based on the quality of their chances, they were “expected” to score 2.5 goals
The median goal  provides a stable measure of a team’s typical scoring performance. Unlike the mean, which can be influenced by outliers, the median is robust and useful for predicting future performance. Please see the table below for the teams median performance regarding Xgoal at home or away, respectively.

Date Home Team Away Team Median Home Median Away
2025-01-24 Auxerre Saint-Étienne 1.90 3.30
2025-01-25 Monaco Rennes 2.60 2.45
2025-01-25 Strasbourg Lille 2.30 2.90
2025-01-25 Paris S-G Reims 3.90 2.55
2025-01-26 Le Havre Brest 3.50 3.50
2025-01-26 Lens Angers 2.60 1.80
2025-01-26 Nantes Lyon 2.25 2.50
2025-01-26 Toulouse Montpellier 1.80 2.75
2025-01-26 Nice Marseille 2.85 2.50