English Football

AI Football Tips: Premier League round 23

Get ready for a thrilling clash of titans in Round 23 of the Premier League! The heart-stopping drama unfolds as Manchester Utd, hungry for victory, squares off against Fulham, determined to leave their mark on the competition. This round promises an electrifying showdown with high stakes and unpredictable twists. Stay tuned for the final battle where the victors will emerge from a fierce contest between Aston Villa and West Ham!
In the table below you will find our AI prediccions for Premier League round 23. Asian refers to the recomended asian handicap line.

Date League Home Team Away Team Prediction Asian
2025-01-25 Premier League Wolves Arsenal A No bet
2025-01-25 Premier League Bournemouth Nott’ham Forest H 1X2
2025-01-25 Premier League Brighton Everton H 1X2
2025-01-25 Premier League Liverpool Ipswich Town H No bet
2025-01-25 Premier League Southampton Newcastle Utd A No bet
2025-01-25 Premier League Manchester City Chelsea A +0.25
2025-01-26 Premier League Crystal Palace Brentford H 1X2
2025-01-26 Premier League Tottenham Leicester City H No bet
2025-01-26 Premier League Aston Villa West Ham H 1X2
2025-01-26 Premier League Fulham Manchester Utd H -0.25

The table below shows the percentage of matches with over 2.5 goal for the home team at home, and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team Home +2.5(%) Away +2.5 (%)
2025-01-25 Wolves Arsenal 80 36
2025-01-25 Bournemouth Nott’ham Forest 30 55
2025-01-25 Brighton Everton 60 30
2025-01-25 Liverpool Ipswich Town 60 60
2025-01-25 Southampton Newcastle Utd 60 64
2025-01-25 Manchester City Chelsea 80 55
2025-01-26 Crystal Palace Brentford 36 70
2025-01-26 Tottenham Leicester City 82 90
2025-01-26 Aston Villa West Ham 64 40
2025-01-26 Fulham Manchester Utd 73 50

BTS (Both Teams to Score) is a popular betting market in sports, especially in soccer. In a BTS bet, you’re wagering on whether both teams in a match will score at least one goal each. The table below shows the BTS stats for the home team at home and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team BTS Home (%) BTS Away (%) BTS Target
2025-01-25 Wolves Arsenal 70 64 1.50
2025-01-25 Bournemouth Nott’ham Forest 50 36 2.32
2025-01-25 Brighton Everton 80 30 1.82
2025-01-25 Liverpool Ipswich Town 50 70 1.67
2025-01-25 Southampton Newcastle Utd 40 73 1.77
2025-01-25 Manchester City Chelsea 70 64 1.50
2025-01-26 Crystal Palace Brentford 55 60 1.75
2025-01-26 Tottenham Leicester City 82 80 1.24
2025-01-26 Aston Villa West Ham 73 60 1.51
2025-01-26 Fulham Manchester Utd 91 50 1.42

The table below shows the goal averages for each encounter based on home teams average performance (goals scored and conceded) at home, and away teams average performance away. We use poisson distribution to calculate probabilities for over and under 2.5 goal. For your convienence we have converted the probabilities to decimal odds.

Date Home Team Away Team Goal Avg. +2.5 target odds -2.5 target odds
2025-01-25 Wolves Arsenal 3.35 1.54 2.86
2025-01-25 Bournemouth Nott’ham Forest 2.32 2.44 1.69
2025-01-25 Brighton Everton 2.40 2.32 1.76
2025-01-25 Liverpool Ipswich Town 2.95 1.77 2.30
2025-01-25 Southampton Newcastle Utd 3.20 1.61 2.63
2025-01-25 Manchester City Chelsea 3.43 1.50 2.99
2025-01-26 Crystal Palace Brentford 2.58 2.10 1.91
2025-01-26 Tottenham Leicester City 4.08 1.29 4.41
2025-01-26 Aston Villa West Ham 2.86 1.84 2.20
2025-01-26 Fulham Manchester Utd 2.69 1.98 2.02

We also have calculated the average goals scored and conceded for the teams. See the table below.

Team Home Goals Home Conceded Away Goals Away Conceded
Liverpool 2.00 0.80 2.73 1.09
Tottenham 2.36 1.91 1.73 1.27
Manchester City 2.10 1.40 1.92 1.25
Chelsea 1.82 1.27 2.18 1.18
Arsenal 2.00 0.82 1.91 1.09
Brentford 2.42 1.92 1.10 1.60
Newcastle Utd 1.73 1.09 1.73 1.27
Bournemouth 1.20 0.70 2.00 1.58
Brighton 1.40 1.30 1.75 1.42
Fulham 1.64 1.55 1.45 1.18
Nott’ham Forest 1.36 0.91 1.64 1.09
Aston Villa 1.73 1.18 1.27 1.91
Wolves 1.40 2.30 1.50 2.33
Manchester Utd 1.42 1.67 1.00 1.20
West Ham 1.33 2.17 1.10 1.70
Crystal Palace 0.91 1.55 1.36 1.00
Leicester City 0.92 1.75 1.20 2.70
Ipswich Town 0.67 2.00 1.20 1.90
Everton 1.09 1.18 0.60 1.50
Southampton 0.70 2.70 0.67 1.92

No football stats for betting is complete without the famous xGoal. Haven’t heard of xGoals? Here’s the gist: xGoals measure the quality of chances a team creates. Think of every shot as a lottery ticket; some are a sure shot like a penalty kick, others are more like trying to score from the halfway line with your eyes closed. xGoals assigns a probability to each shot based on factors like distance, angle, and whether the goalkeeper was busy tying his shoelaces. So, when you see a team with an xG of 2.5, it means that, based on the quality of their chances, they were “expected” to score 2.5 goals
The median goal  provides a stable measure of a team’s typical scoring performance. Unlike the mean, which can be influenced by outliers, the median is robust and useful for predicting future performance. Please see the table below for the teams median performance regarding Xgoal at home or away, respectively.

Date Home Team Away Team Median Home Median Away
2025-01-25 Wolves Arsenal 2.85 2.60
2025-01-25 Bournemouth Nott’ham Forest 2.65 2.00
2025-01-25 Brighton Everton 2.85 2.20
2025-01-25 Liverpool Ipswich Town 3.00 2.85
2025-01-25 Southampton Newcastle Utd 3.65 2.80
2025-01-25 Manchester City Chelsea 3.10 3.20
2025-01-26 Crystal Palace Brentford 2.70 2.65
2025-01-26 Tottenham Leicester City 3.40 2.65
2025-01-26 Aston Villa West Ham 2.70 2.85
2025-01-26 Fulham Manchester Utd 2.70 2.55