AI Football Tips: La Liga round 12

Spanish La Liga steps into the spotlight for Matchday 12 from November 6 to 8, headlined by one of the season’s most anticipated blockbuster clashes. The round gets underway on Friday night at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán as Sevilla host Deportivo Alavés in an intense contest for table positioning. Saturday’s action is brimming with high drama, featuring Valencia welcoming title hopefuls Real Madrid to the Mestalla in a traditionally heated atmosphere, while Osasuna lock horns with Athletic Club in a fiery northern battle, RCD Espanyol meet Deportivo La Coruña, and Málaga play Racing Santander.

Sunday delivers the ultimate marquee matchup of Spanish football, as Atlético Madrid collide with archrivals Barcelona in a titanic showdown with championship implications at the Metropolitano. The packed Sunday schedule also sees Elche taking on Real Betis, Real Sociedad battling Rayo Vallecano, and Villarreal meeting Getafe. With possession battles, defensive discipline, and individual flair deciding these pivotal contests, granular data provides the edge. Explore our advanced AI predictions, match simulations, and comprehensive metrics to dissect every La Liga fixture with unmatched precision.

1X2 Match Projections

We let our algorithms crunch the numbers, dig into recent team stats, and do the heavy lifting so you don’t have to! Here is our 1X2 outlook for La Liga at a glance.

Date Home Team Away Team 1X2 Pick
2026-11-06 Sevilla FC Deportivo Alavés 1
2026-11-07 Málaga CF Racing Santander 1
2026-11-07 RCD Espanyol Deportivo La Coruña 1
2026-11-07 CA Osasuna Athletic Club Bilbao 2
2026-11-07 Valencia CF Real Madrid 2
2026-11-08 Elche CF Real Betis 2
2026-11-08 Real Sociedad Rayo Vallecano 1
2026-11-08 Celta de Vigo Levante UD 1
2026-11-08 Villarreal Getafe CF 1
2026-11-08 Atlético Madrid FC Barcelona 2

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Both Teams to Score

BTS (Both Teams to Score) is a popular betting market in sports, especially in soccer. In a BTS bet, you’re wagering on whether both teams in a match will score at least one goal each. The table below shows the BTS stats for the home team at home and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team BTS Home (%) BTS Away (%) BTS Target BTS No Target
2026-11-06 Sevilla FC Deportivo Alavés 60 80 1.79 2.27
2026-11-07 Málaga CF Racing Santander 80 40 2.34 1.75
2026-11-07 RCD Espanyol Deportivo La Coruña 60 80 1.86 2.17
2026-11-07 CA Osasuna Athletic Club Bilbao 20 25 1.42 3.38
2026-11-07 Valencia CF Real Madrid 33 67 1.56 2.78
2026-11-08 Elche CF Real Betis 40 60 1.46 3.19
2026-11-08 Real Sociedad Rayo Vallecano 60 100 1.73 2.36
2026-11-08 Celta de Vigo Levante UD 50 50 1.56 2.80
2026-11-08 Villarreal Getafe CF 60 0 1.90 2.11
2026-11-08 Atlético Madrid FC Barcelona 40 60 1.40 3.50

Totals

The table below shows the goal averages for each encounter based on home teams average performance (goals scored and conceded) at home, and away teams average performance away. We use poisson distribution to calculate probabilities for over and under 2.5 goal. For your convienence we have converted the probabilities to decimal odds.

Date League Home Team Away Team +2.5 target odds -2.5 target odds
2026-11-06 La Liga Sevilla FC Deportivo Alavés 1.82 2.21
2026-11-07 La Liga Málaga CF Racing Santander 1.86 2.16
2026-11-07 La Liga RCD Espanyol Deportivo La Coruña 1.83 2.20
2026-11-07 La Liga CA Osasuna Athletic Club Bilbao 1.78 2.29
2026-11-07 La Liga Valencia CF Real Madrid 1.80 2.25
2026-11-08 La Liga Elche CF Real Betis 1.55 2.83
2026-11-08 La Liga Real Sociedad Rayo Vallecano 1.72 2.39
2026-11-08 La Liga Celta de Vigo Levante UD 2.18 1.85
2026-11-08 La Liga Villarreal Getafe CF 1.97 2.03
2026-11-08 La Liga Atlético Madrid FC Barcelona 1.25 4.94

First Half Goals

The table below shows estimated first-half goal probabilities using Poisson distribution. HT Avg is the expected number of goals before half-time. O/U 0.5 FH and O/U 1.5 FH are the corresponding over/under odds for the first half.

Home Team Away Team HT Avg O 0.5 FH U 0.5 FH O 1.5 FH U 1.5 FH
Sevilla FC Deportivo Alavés 1.05 1.54 2.85 3.55 1.39
Málaga CF Racing Santander 1.75 1.21 5.75 1.92 2.09
RCD Espanyol Deportivo La Coruña 1.08 1.51 2.95 3.39 1.42
CA Osasuna Athletic Club Bilbao 1.21 1.42 3.36 2.92 1.52
Valencia CF Real Madrid 0.93 1.65 2.53 4.19 1.31
Elche CF Real Betis 1.01 1.57 2.74 3.74 1.36
Real Sociedad Rayo Vallecano 1.69 1.23 5.40 1.99 2.01
Celta de Vigo Levante UD 1.02 1.56 2.78 3.68 1.37
Villarreal Getafe CF 1.16 1.46 3.18 3.11 1.47
Atlético Madrid FC Barcelona 1.21 1.43 3.35 2.94 1.52

Early Goals (First 15 Minutes)

The table below shows the probability of a goal being scored in the first 15 minutes. EG Home/Away (%) is the historical frequency across all matches for each team. Poisson ≥1 (%) is the model-estimated probability of at least one early goal in this fixture.

Home Team Away Team EG Home (%) EG Away (%) Poisson ≥1 (%)
Sevilla FC Deportivo Alavés 36.4 9.1 10.3
Málaga CF Racing Santander 27.3 54.5 38.8
RCD Espanyol Deportivo La Coruña 54.5 9.1 15.1
CA Osasuna Athletic Club Bilbao 36.4 20.0 21.4
Valencia CF Real Madrid 27.3 27.3 21.8
Elche CF Real Betis 27.3 18.2 15.1
Real Sociedad Rayo Vallecano 45.5 60.0 59.4
Celta de Vigo Levante UD 9.1 36.4 10.3
Villarreal Getafe CF 9.1 18.2 5.3
Atlético Madrid FC Barcelona 9.1 72.7 19.6

Corners Over/Under 9.5

The table below shows the predicted corner totals for each fixture using strength-of-schedule adjusted ratings. Corner Avg is the expected total corners. +9.5 and -9.5 odds are the model-estimated decimal odds for over and under 9.5 total corners.

Home Team Away Team Corner Avg +9.5 odds -9.5 odds
Sevilla FC Deportivo Alavés 7.71 3.87 1.35
Málaga CF Racing Santander 10.84 1.59 2.69
RCD Espanyol Deportivo La Coruña 9.79 1.97 2.03
CA Osasuna Athletic Club Bilbao 10.17 1.81 2.24
Valencia CF Real Madrid 9.31 2.22 1.82
Elche CF Real Betis 9.66 2.03 1.97
Real Sociedad Rayo Vallecano 11.94 1.36 3.76
Celta de Vigo Levante UD 6.92 5.71 1.21
Villarreal Getafe CF 9.15 2.32 1.76
Atlético Madrid FC Barcelona 6.61 6.83 1.17

We also have calculated the average goals scored and conceded for the teams. See the table below.

Team Home Goals Home Conceded Away Goals Away Conceded
FC Barcelona 4.00 1.17 4.40 1.00
Real Madrid 3.40 0.60 1.83 1.17
Atlético Madrid 2.20 0.60 1.83 0.83
Real Sociedad 1.40 1.40 2.17 2.17
Real Betis 2.00 1.33 1.20 1.40
Sevilla FC 1.40 1.40 1.67 2.00
Rayo Vallecano 1.80 1.40 1.20 2.60
Levante UD 2.60 2.40 0.50 1.50
Athletic Club Bilbao 1.83 0.83 0.75 1.25
Racing Santander 1.83 1.83 0.80 3.60
Villarreal 1.20 1.40 1.50 1.33
Deportivo La Coruña 1.33 1.00 1.40 1.60
Deportivo Alavés 1.83 1.00 0.80 2.20
Elche CF 0.80 2.40 1.67 1.00
RCD Espanyol 1.20 1.40 1.17 1.17
CA Osasuna 0.80 0.60 1.17 3.17
Celta de Vigo 1.50 1.00 0.20 0.80
Getafe CF 1.33 0.67 0.00 2.40
Valencia CF 0.50 1.83 1.00 1.20
Málaga CF 1.00 2.00 0.50 1.83

Correct Score Predictions

These projections are generated using advanced statistical models that evaluate team strength, expected‑goals data, and historical scoring patterns. The table below highlights the most probable scorelines based on current performance indicators and model‑driven probability weighting.

Date League Home Team Away Team Home Score Away Score Score Prob (%)
2026-11-06 La Liga Sevilla FC Deportivo Alavés 1 0 14.8
2026-11-07 La Liga Málaga CF Racing Santander 1 1 13.7
2026-11-07 La Liga RCD Espanyol Deportivo La Coruña 1 1 14.9
2026-11-07 La Liga CA Osasuna Athletic Club Bilbao 1 1 12.9
2026-11-07 La Liga Valencia CF Real Madrid 1 1 11.2
2026-11-08 La Liga Elche CF Real Betis 1 1 13.8
2026-11-08 La Liga Real Sociedad Rayo Vallecano 1 1 12.9
2026-11-08 La Liga Celta de Vigo Levante UD 0 0 15.6
2026-11-08 La Liga Villarreal Getafe CF 1 0 16.9
2026-11-08 La Liga Atlético Madrid FC Barcelona 2 3 6.8


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