AI Football Tips: Serie A round 11

Italian Serie A takes center stage for Matchday 11 from November 6 to 8, featuring storied rivalries and intense battles across the upper echelons of Calcio. The round begins on Friday evening in the lagoon as Venezia battle regional rivals Udinese at the Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo. Saturday’s action turns up the heat with a traditional Derby dell’Emilia as Parma host Bologna at the Ennio Tardini, alongside AS Roma welcoming Sassuolo to the Stadio Olimpico, Torino clashing with Lecce, and Cagliari taking on Frosinone.

Super Sunday is stacked with blockbuster encounters from noon to night, starting with SSC Napoli locking horns with Lazio in an explosive clash of European contenders, while Fiorentina renew their bitter feud with Juventus at the Artemio Franchi. Elsewhere, Genoa face a daunting home test against AC Milan, title contenders Inter Milan host ambitious neighbors Como at San Siro, and Monza battle Atalanta. In a league renowned for tactical discipline and meticulous preparation, gain an edge with our advanced AI predictions, match simulations, and granular analytical data covering every Serie A fixture.

1X2 Match Projections

We let our algorithms crunch the numbers, dig into recent team stats, and do the heavy lifting so you don’t have to! Here is our 1X2 outlook for Serie A at a glance.

Date Home Team Away Team 1X2 Pick
2026-11-06 Venezia Udinese X
2026-11-07 Cagliari Frosinone 2
2026-11-07 Torino Lecce 1
2026-11-07 Parma Bologna 2
2026-11-07 Roma Sassuolo 1
2026-11-08 Napoli Lazio 2
2026-11-08 Genoa AC Milan 2
2026-11-08 Monza Atalanta 1
2026-11-08 Inter Milan Como 1
2026-11-08 Fiorentina Juventus 2

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Both Teams to Score

BTS (Both Teams to Score) is a popular betting market in sports, especially in soccer. In a BTS bet, you’re wagering on whether both teams in a match will score at least one goal each. The table below shows the BTS stats for the home team at home and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team BTS Home (%) BTS Away (%) BTS Target BTS No Target
2026-11-06 Venezia Udinese 20 75 2.05 1.95
2026-11-07 Cagliari Frosinone 25 50 1.71 2.41
2026-11-07 Torino Lecce 80 20 1.69 2.45
2026-11-07 Parma Bologna 40 40 2.60 1.63
2026-11-07 Roma Sassuolo 60 80 1.22 5.49
2026-11-08 Napoli Lazio 50 40 1.57 2.76
2026-11-08 Genoa AC Milan 50 80 2.05 1.95
2026-11-08 Monza Atalanta 75 75 1.46 3.19
2026-11-08 Inter Milan Como 80 83 1.51 2.97
2026-11-08 Fiorentina Juventus 80 40 2.18 1.85

Totals

The table below shows the goal averages for each encounter based on home teams average performance (goals scored and conceded) at home, and away teams average performance away. We use poisson distribution to calculate probabilities for over and under 2.5 goal. For your convienence we have converted the probabilities to decimal odds.

Date League Home Team Away Team +2.5 target odds -2.5 target odds
2026-11-06 Serie A Venezia Udinese 2.30 1.77
2026-11-07 Serie A Cagliari Frosinone 1.94 2.07
2026-11-07 Serie A Torino Lecce 1.44 3.30
2026-11-07 Serie A Parma Bologna 2.14 1.88
2026-11-07 Serie A Roma Sassuolo 1.11 9.72
2026-11-08 Serie A Napoli Lazio 1.92 2.09
2026-11-08 Serie A Genoa AC Milan 1.71 2.40
2026-11-08 Serie A Monza Atalanta 1.23 5.30
2026-11-08 Serie A Inter Milan Como 1.53 2.90
2026-11-08 Serie A Fiorentina Juventus 1.58 2.72

First Half Goals

The table below shows estimated first-half goal probabilities using Poisson distribution. HT Avg is the expected number of goals before half-time. O/U 0.5 FH and O/U 1.5 FH are the corresponding over/under odds for the first half.

Home Team Away Team HT Avg O 0.5 FH U 0.5 FH O 1.5 FH U 1.5 FH
Venezia Udinese 1.19 1.44 3.28 3.00 1.50
Cagliari Frosinone 1.43 1.31 4.18 2.39 1.72
Torino Lecce 0.99 1.59 2.69 3.85 1.35
Parma Bologna 0.87 1.73 2.38 4.65 1.27
Roma Sassuolo 1.33 1.36 3.77 2.62 1.62
Napoli Lazio 1.44 1.31 4.21 2.38 1.73
Genoa AC Milan 0.99 1.60 2.68 3.86 1.35
Monza Atalanta 1.34 1.35 3.83 2.57 1.64
Inter Milan Como 2.11 1.14 8.22 1.61 2.65
Fiorentina Juventus 1.22 1.42 3.39 2.90 1.53

Early Goals (First 15 Minutes)

The table below shows the probability of a goal being scored in the first 15 minutes. EG Home/Away (%) is the historical frequency across all matches for each team. Poisson ≥1 (%) is the model-estimated probability of at least one early goal in this fixture.

Home Team Away Team EG Home (%) EG Away (%) Poisson ≥1 (%)
Venezia Udinese 10.0 40.0 12.1
Cagliari Frosinone 20.0 40.0 22.7
Torino Lecce 20.0 50.0 27.6
Parma Bologna 20.0 40.0 22.7
Roma Sassuolo 40.0 30.0 32.1
Napoli Lazio 10.0 30.0 9.2
Genoa AC Milan 40.0 50.0 47.5
Monza Atalanta 50.0 30.0 38.4
Inter Milan Como 70.0 10.0 20.2
Fiorentina Juventus 10.0 10.0 3.2

Corners Over/Under 9.5

The table below shows the predicted corner totals for each fixture using strength-of-schedule adjusted ratings. Corner Avg is the expected total corners. +9.5 and -9.5 odds are the model-estimated decimal odds for over and under 9.5 total corners.

Home Team Away Team Corner Avg +9.5 odds -9.5 odds
Venezia Udinese 9.00 2.42 1.70
Cagliari Frosinone 11.53 1.44 3.30
Torino Lecce 8.27 3.10 1.48
Parma Bologna 8.00 3.43 1.41
Roma Sassuolo 10.99 1.55 2.80
Napoli Lazio 9.52 2.10 1.91
Genoa AC Milan 9.89 1.92 2.08
Monza Atalanta 7.91 3.56 1.39
Inter Milan Como 10.01 1.87 2.15
Fiorentina Juventus 10.89 1.58 2.73

We also have calculated the average goals scored and conceded for the teams. See the table below.

Team Home Goals Home Conceded Away Goals Away Conceded
Roma 2.80 1.00 2.80 1.00
Inter Milan 3.40 1.40 1.80 1.20
Lazio 2.00 1.00 2.80 0.60
Frosinone 2.67 1.00 2.00 2.00
AC Milan 2.60 1.40 1.60 1.00
Como 1.25 0.25 2.17 1.17
Monza 2.25 2.00 1.33 2.67
Napoli 2.00 1.25 1.50 1.33
Atalanta 1.83 1.83 1.25 2.25
Sassuolo 2.00 2.80 1.20 2.40
Fiorentina 1.00 2.20 2.00 2.40
Bologna 1.20 1.60 1.60 1.00
Torino 1.40 2.00 1.40 1.20
Juventus 1.40 0.80 1.20 1.20
Lecce 1.00 2.40 1.20 1.80
Udinese 0.67 2.33 1.75 2.25
Genoa 1.17 1.33 0.75 1.50
Cagliari 0.50 1.00 1.17 1.83
Parma 0.60 1.20 1.00 1.80
Venezia 0.60 2.00 0.60 2.00

Correct Score Predictions

These projections are generated using advanced statistical models that evaluate team strength, expected‑goals data, and historical scoring patterns. The table below highlights the most probable scorelines based on current performance indicators and model‑driven probability weighting.

Date League Home Team Away Team Home Score Away Score Score Prob (%)
2026-11-06 Serie A Venezia Udinese 1 1 14.7
2026-11-07 Serie A Cagliari Frosinone 1 1 13.7
2026-11-07 Serie A Torino Lecce 1 1 11.7
2026-11-07 Serie A Parma Bologna 1 1 14.3
2026-11-07 Serie A Roma Sassuolo 2 2 7.2
2026-11-08 Serie A Napoli Lazio 1 1 9.2
2026-11-08 Serie A Genoa AC Milan 1 1 10.4
2026-11-08 Serie A Monza Atalanta 1 1 9.2
2026-11-08 Serie A Inter Milan Como 2 1 8.9
2026-11-08 Serie A Fiorentina Juventus 1 1 13.2


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