AI Football Tips: Primeira Liga round 9

Following the cup drama of the Taça de Portugal, championship football returns to the forefront with maximum intensity as the Primeira Liga launches into a captivating Matchweek 9 from October 23–26. As the autumn campaign gathers full momentum, the battle for the title and coveted UEFA Champions League positions is heating up significantly. Portugal’s elite clubs face treacherous road trips and grueling tactical tests across the mainland and the Atlantic islands, where even the slightest slip-up could prove costly in the hunt for silverware.

Saturday’s action is highlighted by a high-stakes prime-time clash in Barcelos, where FC Porto must navigate a notoriously difficult away test against a resilient Gil Vicente side. On Sunday, title chasers Sporting CP return to the roar of the Estádio José Alvalade to host Académico de Viseu, while Sporting Braga makes the island trip to Madeira to battle CD Nacional, alongside an intense Minho duel between Rio Ave and FC Famalicão. The round reaches its conclusion on Monday evening as SL Benfica embarks on a testing flight across the Atlantic to face CD Santa Clara in the Azores, following Friday’s fiery opener between Vitória de Guimarães and Marítimo. Explore our advanced AI-driven match predictions, detailed team statistics, and data analytics for every hard-fought encounter in this thrilling Portuguese round.

Full Time Results and Asian Handicap

In the table below you will find our AI prediccions for Primeira Liga round 9. Asian refers to the recomended asian handicap line.

Date League Home Team Away Team P(H) P(D) P(A) Prediction Asian
2026-10-23 Primeira Liga Vitória Guimarães CS Marítimo 0.7649 0.1886 0.0465 H 1X2
2026-10-24 Primeira Liga Estrela Amadora Casa Pia 0.6195 0.2661 0.1143 H 1X2
2026-10-24 Primeira Liga Alverca FC Arouca 0.5004 0.3089 0.1907 H 1X2
2026-10-24 Primeira Liga Gil Vicente Porto 0.2346 0.3224 0.4431 A No bet
2026-10-25 Primeira Liga GD Estoril Praia Moreirense FC 0.6641 0.2453 0.0906 H 1X2
2026-10-25 Primeira Liga CD Nacional Sporting Braga 0.1089 0.2618 0.6294 A 1X2
2026-10-25 Primeira Liga Rio Ave FC Famalicão 0.1969 0.3112 0.4919 A 1X2
2026-10-25 Primeira Liga Sporting CP Academico Viseu 0.7658 0.1880 0.0462 H No bet
2026-10-26 Primeira Liga Santa Clara Benfica 0.1582 0.2943 0.5475 A No bet

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Both Teams to Score

BTS (Both Teams to Score) is a popular betting market in sports, especially in soccer. In a BTS bet, you’re wagering on whether both teams in a match will score at least one goal each. The table below shows the BTS stats for the home team at home and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team BTS Home (%) BTS Away (%) BTS Target BTS No Target
2026-10-23 Vitória Guimarães CS Marítimo 25 100 1.37 3.70
2026-10-24 Estrela Amadora Casa Pia 75 25 2.20 1.83
2026-10-24 Alverca FC Arouca 75 25 1.43 3.33
2026-10-24 Gil Vicente Porto 25 50 1.50 2.98
2026-10-25 GD Estoril Praia Moreirense FC 50 50 1.59 2.71
2026-10-25 CD Nacional Sporting Braga 50 75 1.86 2.17
2026-10-25 Rio Ave FC Famalicão 50 50 3.47 1.40
2026-10-25 Sporting CP Academico Viseu 75 50 2.37 1.73
2026-10-26 Santa Clara Benfica 25 25 1.57 2.74

Totals

The table below shows the goal averages for each encounter based on home teams average performance (goals scored and conceded) at home, and away teams average performance away. We use poisson distribution to calculate probabilities for over and under 2.5 goal. For your convienence we have converted the probabilities to decimal odds.

Date League Home Team Away Team +2.5 target odds -2.5 target odds
2026-10-23 Primeira Liga Vitória Guimarães CS Marítimo 1.92 2.09
2026-10-24 Primeira Liga Estrela Amadora Casa Pia 1.65 2.54
2026-10-24 Primeira Liga Alverca FC Arouca 1.37 3.69
2026-10-24 Primeira Liga Gil Vicente Porto 1.30 4.30
2026-10-25 Primeira Liga GD Estoril Praia Moreirense FC 1.71 2.40
2026-10-25 Primeira Liga CD Nacional Sporting Braga 1.58 2.72
2026-10-25 Primeira Liga Rio Ave FC Famalicão 1.57 2.74
2026-10-25 Primeira Liga Sporting CP Academico Viseu 1.46 3.15
2026-10-26 Primeira Liga Santa Clara Benfica 1.23 5.29

First Half Goals

The table below shows estimated first-half goal probabilities using Poisson distribution. HT Avg is the expected number of goals before half-time. O/U 0.5 FH and O/U 1.5 FH are the corresponding over/under odds for the first half.

Home Team Away Team HT Avg O 0.5 FH U 0.5 FH O 1.5 FH U 1.5 FH
Vitória Guimarães CS Marítimo 1.03 1.56 2.80 3.64 1.38
Estrela Amadora Casa Pia 0.93 1.65 2.54 4.19 1.31
Alverca FC Arouca 0.78 1.84 2.19 5.40 1.23
Gil Vicente Porto 1.53 1.28 4.60 2.22 1.82
GD Estoril Praia Moreirense FC 0.98 1.60 2.66 3.90 1.35
CD Nacional Sporting Braga 1.56 1.27 4.75 2.17 1.86
Rio Ave FC Famalicão 1.82 1.19 6.14 1.85 2.18
Sporting CP Academico Viseu 1.37 1.34 3.92 2.52 1.66
Santa Clara Benfica 1.23 1.41 3.41 2.88 1.53

Early Goals (First 15 Minutes)

The table below shows the probability of a goal being scored in the first 15 minutes. EG Home/Away (%) is the historical frequency across all matches for each team. Poisson ≥1 (%) is the model-estimated probability of at least one early goal in this fixture.

Home Team Away Team EG Home (%) EG Away (%) Poisson ≥1 (%)
Vitória Guimarães CS Marítimo 25.0 37.5 22.1
Estrela Amadora Casa Pia 62.5 12.5 18.8
Alverca FC Arouca 50.0 25.0 28.3
Gil Vicente Porto 37.5 37.5 31.3
GD Estoril Praia Moreirense FC 12.5 12.5 4.1
CD Nacional Sporting Braga 37.5 25.0 22.1
Rio Ave FC Famalicão 62.5 50.0 56.5
Sporting CP Academico Viseu 50.0 62.5 56.5
Santa Clara Benfica 25.0 50.0 28.3

Corners Over/Under 9.5

The table below shows the predicted corner totals for each fixture using strength-of-schedule adjusted ratings. Corner Avg is the expected total corners. +9.5 and -9.5 odds are the model-estimated decimal odds for over and under 9.5 total corners.

Home Team Away Team Corner Avg +9.5 odds -9.5 odds
Vitória Guimarães CS Marítimo 7.70 3.88 1.35
Estrela Amadora Casa Pia 10.40 1.73 2.38
Alverca FC Arouca 8.52 2.83 1.55
Gil Vicente Porto 8.07 3.33 1.43
GD Estoril Praia Moreirense FC 8.24 3.12 1.47
CD Nacional Sporting Braga 8.15 3.23 1.45
Rio Ave FC Famalicão 10.53 1.68 2.46
Sporting CP Academico Viseu 8.11 3.28 1.44
Santa Clara Benfica 8.17 3.21 1.45

We also have calculated the average goals scored and conceded for the teams. See the table below.

Team Home Goals Home Conceded Away Goals Away Conceded
Benfica 2.25 1.00 3.75 0.75
Sporting CP 2.50 1.25 2.50 1.00
Porto 2.25 0.50 2.75 0.50
Estrela Amadora 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.00
Alverca 1.25 1.25 2.00 1.75
Santa Clara 1.75 0.50 1.25 0.50
Academico Viseu 1.00 1.50 1.75 1.00
FC Arouca 2.00 0.75 0.75 1.00
Famalicão 0.75 1.75 1.75 1.00
Sporting Braga 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.25
CD Nacional 1.25 2.50 1.00 2.00
CS Marítimo 1.00 1.75 1.25 1.75
Gil Vicente 1.00 0.50 1.00 1.00
Moreirense FC 1.25 2.00 0.75 1.75
Rio Ave FC 1.50 2.75 0.50 1.50
Vitória Guimarães 0.50 0.50 0.75 2.00
GD Estoril Praia 0.50 1.25 0.50 1.75
Casa Pia 0.25 3.25 0.50 1.00

Correct Score Predictions

These projections are generated using advanced statistical models that evaluate team strength, expected‑goals data, and historical scoring patterns. The table below highlights the most probable scorelines based on current performance indicators and model‑driven probability weighting.

Date League Home Team Away Team Home Score Away Score Score Prob (%)
2026-10-23 Primeira Liga Vitória Guimarães CS Marítimo 0 2 13.6
2026-10-24 Primeira Liga Estrela Amadora Casa Pia 1 1 13.3
2026-10-24 Primeira Liga Alverca FC Arouca 1 1 12.6
2026-10-24 Primeira Liga Gil Vicente Porto 1 1 10.7
2026-10-25 Primeira Liga GD Estoril Praia Moreirense FC 1 1 11.8
2026-10-25 Primeira Liga CD Nacional Sporting Braga 1 1 11.8
2026-10-25 Primeira Liga Rio Ave FC Famalicão 1 1 10.4
2026-10-25 Primeira Liga Sporting CP Academico Viseu 1 1 11.5
2026-10-26 Primeira Liga Santa Clara Benfica 1 1 10.6


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