AI Football Tips: Primeira Liga round 15

Get ready for a thrilling round of Primeira Liga action as we dive into the heart of Portuguese football’s competitive spirit! This league, known for its passionate fans and unpredictable twists, is about to deliver another electrifying round. We kick off the excitement with a clash on December 20th between Casa Pia and Arouca – both teams hungry for victory. Will the home team Casa Pia secure a win? Stay tuned to find out! And as we reach the climax of this round, the Estrela vs Rio Ave match promises a nail-biting finish on December 23rd. Can Estrela overcome their opponent and clinch the coveted victory? This is Primeira Liga – where anything is possible!
In the table below you will find our AI prediccions for Primeira Liga round 15. Asian refers to the recomended asian handicap line.

Date League Home Team Away Team Prediction Asian
2024-12-20 Primeira Liga Casa Pia Arouca H -0.25
2024-12-21 Primeira Liga Famalicão Farense H 1X2
2024-12-21 Primeira Liga Boavista AVS Futebol H -0.25
2024-12-21 Primeira Liga Moreirense Porto A 1X2
2024-12-22 Primeira Liga Santa Clara Braga H +0.25
2024-12-22 Primeira Liga Gil Vicente FC Sporting CP A No bet
2024-12-23 Primeira Liga Benfica Estoril H No bet
2024-12-23 Primeira Liga Vitória Nacional H No bet
2024-12-23 Primeira Liga Estrela Rio Ave A +0.25

The table below shows the percentage of matches with over 2.5 goal for the home team at home, and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team Home +2.5(%) Away +2.5 (%)
2024-12-20 Casa Pia Arouca 14 57
2024-12-21 Famalicão Farense 14 14
2024-12-21 Boavista AVS Futebol 17 50
2024-12-21 Moreirense Porto 50 50
2024-12-22 Santa Clara Braga 29 50
2024-12-22 Gil Vicente FC Sporting CP 67 100
2024-12-23 Benfica Estoril 71 50
2024-12-23 Vitória Nacional 67 14
2024-12-23 Estrela Rio Ave 71 43

BTS (Both Teams to Score) is a popular betting market in sports, especially in soccer. In a BTS bet, you’re wagering on whether both teams in a match will score at least one goal each. The table below shows the BTS stats for the home team at home and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team BTS Home (%) BTS Away (%)
2024-12-20 Casa Pia Arouca 57 43
2024-12-21 Famalicão Farense 29 43
2024-12-21 Boavista AVS Futebol 17 67
2024-12-21 Moreirense Porto 67 33
2024-12-22 Santa Clara Braga 29 33
2024-12-22 Gil Vicente FC Sporting CP 67 43
2024-12-23 Benfica Estoril 43 33
2024-12-23 Vitória Nacional 33 29
2024-12-23 Estrela Rio Ave 57 14

The table below shows the goal averages for each encounter based on home teams average performance (goals scored and conceded) at home, and away teams average performance away.

Date Home Team Away Team Goal Avg.
2024-12-20 Casa Pia Arouca 2.28
2024-12-21 Famalicão Farense 1.57
2024-12-21 Boavista AVS Futebol 2.17
2024-12-21 Moreirense Porto 2.84
2024-12-22 Santa Clara Braga 1.77
2024-12-22 Gil Vicente FC Sporting CP 3.56
2024-12-23 Benfica Estoril 3.02
2024-12-23 Vitória Nacional 2.05
2024-12-23 Estrela Rio Ave 2.78

We also have calculated the average goals scored and conceded for the teams. See the table below.

Team Home Goals Home Conceded Away Goals Away Conceded
Sporting CP 2.57 0.71 3.57 0.71
Benfica 3.29 0.43 1.57 0.71
Porto 2.62 0.25 2.00 1.17
Braga 2.12 1.62 1.33 0.50
Moreirense 1.67 0.83 1.12 1.75
Vitória 1.67 1.00 1.00 1.00
Famalicão 0.71 0.71 1.71 1.43
Gil Vicente FC 1.83 1.00 0.75 2.25
Santa Clara 1.14 0.57 1.14 1.29
Rio Ave 1.71 1.29 0.43 2.29
Casa Pia 1.00 1.00 0.86 1.43
Estoril 1.00 1.38 0.67 1.67
Estrela 1.43 1.43 0.29 2.00
AVS Futebol 0.75 1.38 0.83 1.83
Boavista 0.17 1.50 1.12 1.25
Nacional 0.86 1.57 0.29 1.14
Arouca 0.57 1.29 0.57 2.00
Farense 0.57 1.57 0.43 1.29

No football stats for betting is complete without the famous xGoal. Haven’t heard of xGoals? Here’s the gist: xGoals measure the quality of chances a team creates. Think of every shot as a lottery ticket; some are a sure shot like a penalty kick, others are more like trying to score from the halfway line with your eyes closed. xGoals assigns a probability to each shot based on factors like distance, angle, and whether the goalkeeper was busy tying his shoelaces. So, when you see a team with an xG of 2.5, it means that, based on the quality of their chances, they were “expected” to score 2.5 goals
The median goal  provides a stable measure of a team’s typical scoring performance. Unlike the mean, which can be influenced by outliers, the median is robust and useful for predicting future performance. Please see the table below for the teams median performance regarding Xgoal at home or away, respectively.

Date Home Team Away Team Median Home Median Away
2024-12-20 Casa Pia Arouca 2.00 2.60
2024-12-21 Famalicão Farense 1.60 2.00
2024-12-21 Boavista AVS Futebol 2.35 2.50
2024-12-21 Moreirense Porto 1.75 2.00
2024-12-22 Santa Clara Braga 2.20 2.60
2024-12-22 Gil Vicente FC Sporting CP 2.55 3.40
2024-12-23 Benfica Estoril 2.90 3.05
2024-12-23 Vitória Nacional 1.80 2.10
2024-12-23 Estrela Rio Ave 2.60 2.90