English Football

AI Football Tips: Premier League round 22

Get ready for an epic clash of titans in Round 22 of the Premier League! The heart-pumping action returns as teams battle it out for supremacy, with every point crucial as they navigate the treacherous path towards glory. The spirit of competition is high, and anticipation crackles across the nation. Kick off your round with a thrilling encounter on January 18th, where Chelsea takes on Wolves. Will the Blues’ home advantage hold strong against the spirited Wolves? The final fixture sees Manchester United clashing with Brighton on January 19th. Can the Red Devils maintain their attacking prowess at Old Trafford? The outcome of this match could have huge ramifications for both teams as they strive for victory!
In the table below you will find our AI prediccions for Premier League round 22. Asian refers to the recomended asian handicap line.

Date League Home Team Away Team Prediction Asian
2025-01-18 Premier League Newcastle Utd Bournemouth H 1X2
2025-01-18 Premier League Brentford Liverpool A No bet
2025-01-18 Premier League West Ham Crystal Palace H 0
2025-01-18 Premier League Leicester City Fulham A 1X2
2025-01-18 Premier League Arsenal Aston Villa H 1X2
2025-01-19 Premier League Manchester Utd Brighton H 1X2
2025-01-19 Premier League Everton Tottenham A -0.25
2025-01-19 Premier League Nott’ham Forest Southampton H No bet
2025-01-19 Premier League Ipswich Town Manchester City A No bet
2025-01-20 Premier League Chelsea Wolves H No bet

The table below shows the percentage of matches with over 2.5 goal for the home team at home, and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team Home +2.5(%) Away +2.5 (%)
2025-01-18 Newcastle Utd Bournemouth 50 73
2025-01-18 Brentford Liverpool 82 70
2025-01-18 West Ham Crystal Palace 82 50
2025-01-18 Leicester City Fulham 55 40
2025-01-18 Arsenal Aston Villa 50 80
2025-01-19 Manchester Utd Brighton 73 64
2025-01-19 Everton Tottenham 40 60
2025-01-19 Nott’ham Forest Southampton 30 45
2025-01-19 Ipswich Town Manchester City 27 64
2025-01-20 Chelsea Wolves 60 82

BTS (Both Teams to Score) is a popular betting market in sports, especially in soccer. In a BTS bet, you’re wagering on whether both teams in a match will score at least one goal each. The table below shows the BTS stats for the home team at home and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team BTS Home (%) BTS Away (%) BTS Target
2025-01-18 Newcastle Utd Bournemouth 30 73 1.95
2025-01-18 Brentford Liverpool 91 60 1.33
2025-01-18 West Ham Crystal Palace 73 60 1.51
2025-01-18 Leicester City Fulham 64 70 1.50
2025-01-18 Arsenal Aston Villa 50 60 1.82
2025-01-19 Manchester Utd Brighton 36 73 1.83
2025-01-19 Everton Tottenham 30 40 2.86
2025-01-19 Nott’ham Forest Southampton 50 55 1.91
2025-01-19 Ipswich Town Manchester City 45 73 1.69
2025-01-20 Chelsea Wolves 80 64 1.39

The table below shows the goal averages for each encounter based on home teams average performance (goals scored and conceded) at home, and away teams average performance away. We use poisson distribution to calculate probabilities for over and under 2.5 goal. For your convienence we have converted the probabilities to decimal odds.

Date Home Team Away Team Goal Avg. +2.5 target odds -2.5 target odds
2025-01-18 Newcastle Utd Bournemouth 3.03 1.71 2.40
2025-01-18 Brentford Liverpool 4.28 1.25 5.00
2025-01-18 West Ham Crystal Palace 3.02 1.72 2.39
2025-01-18 Leicester City Fulham 2.72 1.96 2.05
2025-01-18 Arsenal Aston Villa 2.90 1.80 2.24
2025-01-19 Manchester Utd Brighton 3.04 1.71 2.41
2025-01-19 Everton Tottenham 2.40 2.32 1.76
2025-01-19 Nott’ham Forest Southampton 2.18 2.69 1.59
2025-01-19 Ipswich Town Manchester City 2.64 2.03 1.97
2025-01-20 Chelsea Wolves 3.41 1.51 2.96

We also have calculated the average goals scored and conceded for the teams. See the table below.

Team Home Goals Home Conceded Away Goals Away Conceded
Liverpool 2.00 0.80 2.80 1.20
Tottenham 2.36 1.91 1.70 1.10
Arsenal 2.00 0.70 1.91 1.09
Chelsea 1.70 1.30 2.18 1.18
Brentford 2.64 1.91 1.10 1.60
Manchester City 2.10 1.40 1.55 1.36
Newcastle Utd 1.80 0.80 1.73 1.27
Bournemouth 1.20 0.70 1.82 1.64
Brighton 1.40 1.30 1.64 1.45
Fulham 1.64 1.55 1.40 1.30
Wolves 1.40 2.30 1.55 2.27
Aston Villa 1.73 1.18 1.20 1.90
Nott’ham Forest 1.20 0.80 1.64 1.09
West Ham 1.45 2.18 1.10 1.70
Manchester Utd 1.45 1.55 1.00 1.20
Crystal Palace 0.91 1.55 1.30 1.10
Leicester City 1.00 1.73 1.20 2.70
Ipswich Town 0.73 1.64 1.20 1.90
Everton 0.90 1.10 0.60 1.50
Southampton 0.70 2.70 0.55 1.82

No football stats for betting is complete without the famous xGoal. Haven’t heard of xGoals? Here’s the gist: xGoals measure the quality of chances a team creates. Think of every shot as a lottery ticket; some are a sure shot like a penalty kick, others are more like trying to score from the halfway line with your eyes closed. xGoals assigns a probability to each shot based on factors like distance, angle, and whether the goalkeeper was busy tying his shoelaces. So, when you see a team with an xG of 2.5, it means that, based on the quality of their chances, they were “expected” to score 2.5 goals
The median goal  provides a stable measure of a team’s typical scoring performance. Unlike the mean, which can be influenced by outliers, the median is robust and useful for predicting future performance. Please see the table below for the teams median performance regarding Xgoal at home or away, respectively.

Date Home Team Away Team Median Home Median Away
2025-01-18 Newcastle Utd Bournemouth 3.00 3.50
2025-01-18 Brentford Liverpool 2.90 3.00
2025-01-18 West Ham Crystal Palace 3.00 2.80
2025-01-18 Leicester City Fulham 2.50 2.45
2025-01-18 Arsenal Aston Villa 2.00 2.95
2025-01-19 Manchester Utd Brighton 2.50 2.70
2025-01-19 Everton Tottenham 2.15 2.45
2025-01-19 Nott’ham Forest Southampton 2.15 2.60
2025-01-19 Ipswich Town Manchester City 2.60 3.00
2025-01-20 Chelsea Wolves 3.10 2.20