English Football

AI Football Tips: EFL Championship round 11

The biting Scandinavian autumn air sets the stage for high drama as Sweden’s Superettan enters a pivotal Round 27 over the weekend of October 17–18. With just four matches remaining in the 2026 campaign, the pressure on every club has reached maximum intensity. The race for automatic promotion to the Allsvenskan, the coveted promotion playoff spots, and the desperate fight to avoid relegation to the third tier are all on a knife’s edge, turning every minute of action into a high-stakes battle.

Saturday’s action delivers immense intrigue, headlined by a massive top-table promotion clash as Falkenbergs FF squares off against ambitious title contenders Landskrona BoIS in a matchup loaded with season-defining significance. Meanwhile, Östers IF aims to maintain their promotion charge at the Visma Arena against a stubborn IK Oddevold side, while Sandvikens IF battles Östersunds FK in a crucial contest near the bottom of the table. The drama continues on Sunday as GIF Sundsvall hosts IFK Värnamo, and Nordic United FC meets Norrby IF. Explore our advanced AI-driven match predictions, detailed team statistics, and data analytics for every hard-fought encounter in this thrilling Superettan round.

Full Time Results and Asian Handicap

In the table below you will find our AI prediccions for EFL Championship round 11. Asian refers to the recomended asian handicap line.

Date League Home Team Away Team P(H) P(D) P(A) Prediction Asian
2026-10-16 EFL Championship Burnley Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.3884 0.3304 0.2811 H 0
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Middlesbrough Cardiff City 0.4596 0.3190 0.2214 H 1X2
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Watford Charlton Athletic 0.4514 0.3207 0.2279 H 0
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Millwall Lincoln City 0.4786 0.3146 0.2068 H 1X2
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Birmingham City Queens Park Rangers 0.4547 0.3200 0.2252 H 1X2
2026-10-17 EFL Championship West Bromwich Albion Blackburn Rovers 0.4545 0.3201 0.2254 H 1X2
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Southampton Bolton Wanderers 0.4486 0.3213 0.2301 H No bet
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Bristol City Sheffield United 0.5593 0.2902 0.1505 H 1X2
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Derby County Stoke City 0.4807 0.3141 0.2053 H 0
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Norwich City Portsmouth 0.4051 0.3285 0.2664 H 1X2
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Wrexham Preston North End 0.4775 0.3149 0.2076 H 1X2
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Swansea City West Ham United 0.4202 0.3264 0.2535 H 0

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Both Teams to Score

BTS (Both Teams to Score) is a popular betting market in sports, especially in soccer. In a BTS bet, you’re wagering on whether both teams in a match will score at least one goal each. The table below shows the BTS stats for the home team at home and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team BTS Home (%) BTS Away (%) BTS Target BTS No Target
2026-10-16 Burnley Wolverhampton Wanderers 100 60 1.88 2.13
2026-10-17 Middlesbrough Cardiff City 80 60 1.50 2.99
2026-10-17 Watford Charlton Athletic 80 80 1.33 4.01
2026-10-17 Millwall Lincoln City 20 20 1.42 3.41
2026-10-17 Birmingham City Queens Park Rangers 80 80 1.71 2.40
2026-10-17 West Bromwich Albion Blackburn Rovers 60 60 1.62 2.60
2026-10-17 Southampton Bolton Wanderers 80 60 1.45 3.23
2026-10-17 Bristol City Sheffield United 20 80 1.53 2.89
2026-10-17 Derby County Stoke City 60 100 1.82 2.22
2026-10-17 Norwich City Portsmouth 80 50 1.32 4.09
2026-10-17 Wrexham Preston North End 100 60 1.42 3.36
2026-10-17 Swansea City West Ham United 40 80 1.62 2.61

Totals

The table below shows the goal averages for each encounter based on home teams average performance (goals scored and conceded) at home, and away teams average performance away. We use poisson distribution to calculate probabilities for over and under 2.5 goal. For your convienence we have converted the probabilities to decimal odds.

Date League Home Team Away Team +2.5 target odds -2.5 target odds
2026-10-16 EFL Championship Burnley Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.65 2.54
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Middlesbrough Cardiff City 1.57 2.77
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Watford Charlton Athletic 1.52 2.91
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Millwall Lincoln City 1.41 3.43
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Birmingham City Queens Park Rangers 1.58 2.72
2026-10-17 EFL Championship West Bromwich Albion Blackburn Rovers 1.45 3.21
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Southampton Bolton Wanderers 1.60 2.66
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Bristol City Sheffield United 1.81 2.23
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Derby County Stoke City 1.64 2.57
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Norwich City Portsmouth 1.53 2.88
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Wrexham Preston North End 1.64 2.56
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Swansea City West Ham United 1.83 2.21

First Half Goals

The table below shows estimated first-half goal probabilities using Poisson distribution. HT Avg is the expected number of goals before half-time. O/U 0.5 FH and O/U 1.5 FH are the corresponding over/under odds for the first half.

Home Team Away Team HT Avg O 0.5 FH U 0.5 FH O 1.5 FH U 1.5 FH
Burnley Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.01 1.58 2.73 3.75 1.36
Middlesbrough Cardiff City 1.21 1.42 3.36 2.92 1.52
Watford Charlton Athletic 1.55 1.27 4.72 2.18 1.85
Millwall Lincoln City 0.77 1.86 2.17 5.50 1.22
Birmingham City Queens Park Rangers 1.83 1.19 6.22 1.83 2.20
West Bromwich Albion Blackburn Rovers 1.37 1.34 3.95 2.50 1.66
Southampton Bolton Wanderers 1.75 1.21 5.74 1.92 2.09
Bristol City Sheffield United 1.07 1.52 2.93 3.43 1.41
Derby County Stoke City 1.98 1.16 7.26 1.70 2.44
Norwich City Portsmouth 1.56 1.27 4.76 2.16 1.86
Wrexham Preston North End 1.22 1.42 3.38 2.90 1.52
Swansea City West Ham United 1.42 1.32 4.13 2.41 1.71

Early Goals (First 15 Minutes)

The table below shows the probability of a goal being scored in the first 15 minutes. EG Home/Away (%) is the historical frequency across all matches for each team. Poisson ≥1 (%) is the model-estimated probability of at least one early goal in this fixture.

Home Team Away Team EG Home (%) EG Away (%) Poisson ≥1 (%)
Burnley Wolverhampton Wanderers 50.0 33.3 36.9
Middlesbrough Cardiff City 40.0 40.0 35.8
Watford Charlton Athletic 60.0 40.0 48.5
Millwall Lincoln City 20.0 20.0 10.5
Birmingham City Queens Park Rangers 20.0 20.0 10.5
West Bromwich Albion Blackburn Rovers 10.0 30.0 8.0
Southampton Bolton Wanderers 40.0 40.0 35.8
Bristol City Sheffield United 20.0 30.0 15.3
Derby County Stoke City 30.0 50.0 34.0
Norwich City Portsmouth 50.0 33.3 36.9
Wrexham Preston North End 40.0 60.0 48.5
Swansea City West Ham United 50.0 40.0 42.5

Corners Over/Under 9.5

The table below shows the predicted corner totals for each fixture using strength-of-schedule adjusted ratings. Corner Avg is the expected total corners. +9.5 and -9.5 odds are the model-estimated decimal odds for over and under 9.5 total corners.

Home Team Away Team Corner Avg +9.5 odds -9.5 odds
Burnley Wolverhampton Wanderers 11.45 1.45 3.22
Middlesbrough Cardiff City 11.86 1.38 3.66
Watford Charlton Athletic 10.37 1.74 2.36
Millwall Lincoln City 11.84 1.38 3.65
Birmingham City Queens Park Rangers 9.10 2.36 1.74
West Bromwich Albion Blackburn Rovers 12.37 1.30 4.34
Southampton Bolton Wanderers 10.04 1.86 2.16
Bristol City Sheffield United 12.35 1.30 4.31
Derby County Stoke City 11.40 1.46 3.17
Norwich City Portsmouth 9.28 2.24 1.81
Wrexham Preston North End 9.08 2.37 1.73
Swansea City West Ham United 10.08 1.84 2.18

We also have calculated the average goals scored and conceded for the teams. See the table below.

Team Home Goals Home Conceded Away Goals Away Conceded
West Ham United 3.0 1.0 2.8 1.4
Southampton 3.2 0.8 1.0 1.2
Middlesbrough 2.4 1.4 1.6 1.4
Wolverhampton Wanderers 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.6
Birmingham City 2.2 1.4 1.2 0.8
Stoke City 2.0 1.2 1.4 2.0
Norwich City 2.0 1.8 1.4 2.2
Cardiff City 2.4 1.2 0.8 1.8
Swansea City 1.4 0.4 1.8 1.0
Millwall 1.8 1.2 1.4 2.0
Bolton Wanderers 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.2
Burnley 1.4 1.6 1.6 2.2
Blackburn Rovers 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.2
Queens Park Rangers 1.6 1.0 1.4 0.8
Sheffield United 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.6
Portsmouth 1.6 1.8 1.0 1.0
West Bromwich Albion 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.2
Bristol City 0.6 1.0 1.8 1.8
Wrexham 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.6
Charlton Athletic 0.8 0.4 1.2 2.2
Derby County 0.8 1.8 1.0 2.0
Preston North End 0.8 1.8 0.8 2.2
Watford 1.2 1.8 0.4 2.0
Lincoln City 0.6 2.4 0.8 1.0

Correct Score Predictions

These projections are generated using advanced statistical models that evaluate team strength, expected‑goals data, and historical scoring patterns. The table below highlights the most probable scorelines based on current performance indicators and model‑driven probability weighting.

Date League Home Team Away Team Home Score Away Score Score Prob (%)
2026-10-16 EFL Championship Burnley Wolverhampton Wanderers 1 1 13.5
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Middlesbrough Cardiff City 1 1 12.2
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Watford Charlton Athletic 1 1 12.0
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Millwall Lincoln City 1 1 11.4
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Birmingham City Queens Park Rangers 1 1 12.3
2026-10-17 EFL Championship West Bromwich Albion Blackburn Rovers 1 1 13.4
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Southampton Bolton Wanderers 0 2 11.5
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Bristol City Sheffield United 1 1 13.2
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Derby County Stoke City 1 1 13.9
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Norwich City Portsmouth 1 1 10.9
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Wrexham Preston North End 1 1 11.8
2026-10-17 EFL Championship Swansea City West Ham United 1 1 13.0


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