AI Football Tips: Serie A round 18

Get ready for a thrilling finish to Round 18 in Serie A! The drama is building, and every fixture promises an explosion of passion as teams battle for vital points. This round features some of the league’s most captivating clashes, with underdog upsets and unexpected twists guaranteed. Kick off your weekend with the electrifying clash between Como and Lecce on December 30th. Will home advantage propel Como to victory? Then brace yourself for an equally intense showdown as Bologna take on Hellas Verona later that day – a classic battle where nothing less than a thrilling fight to the finish line will be accepted!
In the table below you will find our AI prediccions for Serie A round 18. Asian refers to the recomended asian handicap line.

Date League Home Team Away Team Prediction Asian
2024-12-28 Serie A Empoli Genoa A +0.25
2024-12-28 Serie A Parma Monza H -0.25
2024-12-28 Serie A Cagliari Inter A No bet
2024-12-28 Serie A Lazio Atalanta A 0
2024-12-29 Serie A Udinese Torino A +0.5
2024-12-29 Serie A Napoli Venezia H No bet
2024-12-29 Serie A Juventus Fiorentina H 1X2
2024-12-29 Serie A Milan Roma H -0.25
2024-12-30 Serie A Como Lecce H 1X2
2024-12-30 Serie A Bologna Hellas Verona H 1X2

The table below shows the percentage of matches with over 2.5 goal for the home team at home, and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team Home +2.5(%) Away +2.5 (%)
2024-12-28 Empoli Genoa 12 29
2024-12-28 Parma Monza 67 38
2024-12-28 Cagliari Inter 33 71
2024-12-28 Lazio Atalanta 100 56
2024-12-29 Udinese Torino 38 44
2024-12-29 Napoli Venezia 50 78
2024-12-29 Juventus Fiorentina 44 25
2024-12-29 Milan Roma 50 25
2024-12-30 Como Lecce 43 25
2024-12-30 Bologna Hellas Verona 14 62

BTS (Both Teams to Score) is a popular betting market in sports, especially in soccer. In a BTS bet, you’re wagering on whether both teams in a match will score at least one goal each. The table below shows the BTS stats for the home team at home and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team BTS Home (%) BTS Away (%) BTS Target
2024-12-28 Empoli Genoa 12 14 2.69
2024-12-28 Parma Monza 89 50 1.71
2024-12-28 Cagliari Inter 33 43 2.03
2024-12-28 Lazio Atalanta 62 33 1.66
2024-12-29 Udinese Torino 38 44 2.44
2024-12-29 Napoli Venezia 25 56 1.89
2024-12-29 Juventus Fiorentina 44 25 2.00
2024-12-29 Milan Roma 12 50 2.12
2024-12-30 Como Lecce 71 12 2.94
2024-12-30 Bologna Hellas Verona 43 62 1.87

The table below shows the goal averages for each encounter based on home teams average performance (goals scored and conceded) at home, and away teams average performance away.

Date Home Team Away Team Goal Avg.
2024-12-28 Empoli Genoa 1.57
2024-12-28 Parma Monza 2.84
2024-12-28 Cagliari Inter 3.14
2024-12-28 Lazio Atalanta 3.20
2024-12-29 Udinese Torino 2.58
2024-12-29 Napoli Venezia 2.57
2024-12-29 Juventus Fiorentina 2.24
2024-12-29 Milan Roma 2.18
2024-12-30 Como Lecce 2.52
2024-12-30 Bologna Hellas Verona 2.54

We also have calculated the average goals scored and conceded for the teams. See the table below.

Team Home Goals Home Conceded Away Goals Away Conceded
Inter 2.33 1.11 3.00 0.71
Atalanta 3.12 1.38 1.89 0.89
Lazio 2.12 1.50 1.67 1.33
Fiorentina 2.00 1.00 1.62 0.62
Juventus 1.44 0.78 1.88 0.75
Milan 1.62 0.50 1.50 1.50
Napoli 1.50 0.75 1.56 0.67
Bologna 1.14 0.43 1.67 1.67
Roma 2.00 1.11 0.62 1.62
Parma 1.56 1.89 1.12 2.00
Udinese 1.12 1.38 1.33 1.67
Hellas Verona 1.22 2.44 1.25 2.25
Como 1.43 1.86 0.80 1.70
Torino 0.75 1.12 1.22 1.44
Venezia 1.25 1.38 0.78 2.11
Empoli 0.25 0.75 1.56 1.44
Cagliari 0.89 1.67 1.00 1.62
Monza 0.78 1.44 1.00 1.25
Genoa 0.90 1.60 0.71 1.43
Lecce 1.00 1.89 0.25 1.50

No football stats for betting is complete without the famous xGoal. Haven’t heard of xGoals? Here’s the gist: xGoals measure the quality of chances a team creates. Think of every shot as a lottery ticket; some are a sure shot like a penalty kick, others are more like trying to score from the halfway line with your eyes closed. xGoals assigns a probability to each shot based on factors like distance, angle, and whether the goalkeeper was busy tying his shoelaces. So, when you see a team with an xG of 2.5, it means that, based on the quality of their chances, they were “expected” to score 2.5 goals
The median goal  provides a stable measure of a team’s typical scoring performance. Unlike the mean, which can be influenced by outliers, the median is robust and useful for predicting future performance. Please see the table below for the teams median performance regarding Xgoal at home or away, respectively.

Date Home Team Away Team Median Home Median Away
2024-12-28 Empoli Genoa 1.35 1.80
2024-12-28 Parma Monza 4.10 1.60
2024-12-28 Cagliari Inter 2.80 2.40
2024-12-28 Lazio Atalanta 2.65 2.30
2024-12-29 Udinese Torino 2.30 1.80
2024-12-29 Napoli Venezia 2.55 2.80
2024-12-29 Juventus Fiorentina 1.70 1.75
2024-12-29 Milan Roma 1.85 2.00
2024-12-30 Como Lecce 2.30 2.40
2024-12-30 Bologna Hellas Verona 2.20 2.60