Blockbuster derbies and elite rivalries take center stage in England as the Premier League kicks off an unmissable Matchweek 4 from September 12–14. Following an explosive round of results that saw dramatic comeback victories, the top flight’s heavyweights are locking in for a weekend of pure theatrical football.
The undisputed crown jewel of the round unfolds at Old Trafford on Sunday, September 13, as Manchester United hosts fierce cross-town rivals Manchester City at 16:30 BST in the Manchester Derby. On Saturday, September 12, high-flying Arsenal—buoyed by captain Martin Ødegaard and Kai Havertz‘s 2–1 comeback win over Chelsea—travels to face Sunderland under the Stadium of Light floodlights at 20:00 BST. Earlier on Saturday, Liverpool hosts Fulham at Anfield, while Tottenham Hotspur locks horns with Everton. The weekend concludes on Monday, September 14, as Leeds United welcomes Newcastle United to Elland Road. Let me guide you through our AI-driven predictions and statistical breakdowns for this week’s matches.
Full Time Results and Asian Handicap
In the table below you will find our AI prediccions for Premier League round 4. Asian refers to the recomended asian handicap line.
| Date | League | Home Team | Away Team | Prediction | Asian |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | H | 1X2 |
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | AFC Bournemouth | Brentford | H | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | Chelsea | Hull City | H | No bet |
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | Crystal Palace | Ipswich Town | H | 1X2 |
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | Liverpool | Fulham | H | No bet |
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | Tottenham Hotspur | Everton | H | 1X2 |
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | Sunderland | Arsenal | A | 1X2 |
| 2026-09-13 | Premier League | Coventry City | Brighton & Hove Albion | A | 1X2 |
| 2026-09-13 | Premier League | Manchester United | Manchester City | A | 1X2 |
| 2026-09-14 | Premier League | Leeds United | Newcastle United | H | -0.25 |
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Both Teams to Score
BTS (Both Teams to Score) is a popular betting market in sports, especially in soccer. In a BTS bet, you’re wagering on whether both teams in a match will score at least one goal each. The table below shows the BTS stats for the home team at home and the away team away.
| Date | Home Team | Away Team | BTS Home (%) | BTS Away (%) | BTS Target | BTS No Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | 50 | 50 | 1.58 | 2.72 |
| 2026-09-12 | AFC Bournemouth | Brentford | 65 | 50 | 1.79 | 2.27 |
| 2026-09-12 | Chelsea | Hull City | 60 | 0 | 2.57 | 1.64 |
| 2026-09-12 | Crystal Palace | Ipswich Town | 55 | 100 | 1.35 | 3.86 |
| 2026-09-12 | Liverpool | Fulham | 70 | 50 | 2.19 | 1.84 |
| 2026-09-12 | Tottenham Hotspur | Everton | 65 | 50 | 1.77 | 2.30 |
| 2026-09-12 | Sunderland | Arsenal | 45 | 50 | 3.62 | 1.38 |
| 2026-09-13 | Coventry City | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0 | 55 | 3.36 | 1.42 |
| 2026-09-13 | Manchester United | Manchester City | 70 | 55 | 1.38 | 3.60 |
| 2026-09-14 | Leeds United | Newcastle United | 55 | 50 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
Totals
The table below shows the goal averages for each encounter based on home teams average performance (goals scored and conceded) at home, and away teams average performance away. We use poisson distribution to calculate probabilities for over and under 2.5 goal. For your convienence we have converted the probabilities to decimal odds.
| Date | League | Home Team | Away Team | +2.5 target odds | -2.5 target odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | 1.31 | 4.24 |
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | AFC Bournemouth | Brentford | 2.39 | 1.72 |
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | Chelsea | Hull City | 1000.00 | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | Crystal Palace | Ipswich Town | 1.26 | 4.85 |
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | Liverpool | Fulham | 2.73 | 1.58 |
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | Tottenham Hotspur | Everton | 2.47 | 1.68 |
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | Sunderland | Arsenal | 15.04 | 1.07 |
| 2026-09-13 | Premier League | Coventry City | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1000.00 | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | Premier League | Manchester United | Manchester City | 1.30 | 4.37 |
| 2026-09-14 | Premier League | Leeds United | Newcastle United | 4.53 | 1.28 |
We also have calculated the average goals scored and conceded for the teams. See the table below.
| Team | Home Goals | Home Conceded | Away Goals | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 2.29 | 0.71 | 1.80 | 1.10 |
| Arsenal | 2.19 | 0.57 | 1.55 | 0.80 |
| Manchester United | 2.20 | 1.30 | 1.52 | 1.43 |
| Liverpool | 1.80 | 1.10 | 1.57 | 1.67 |
| Chelsea | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.71 | 1.48 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 1.50 | 1.05 | 1.52 | 1.81 |
| Brentford | 1.76 | 1.05 | 1.15 | 1.60 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| Newcastle United | 1.90 | 1.62 | 0.95 | 1.25 |
| Aston Villa | 1.60 | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.48 |
| Ipswich Town | 1.00 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| Leeds United | 1.50 | 1.10 | 1.05 | 1.71 |
| Everton | 1.43 | 1.38 | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| Fulham | 1.62 | 1.24 | 0.85 | 1.60 |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.95 | 1.14 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| West Ham United | 1.42 | 1.58 | 1.00 | 1.84 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 1.10 | 1.65 | 1.24 | 1.38 |
| Sunderland | 1.30 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 1.48 |
| Crystal Palace | 1.00 | 1.35 | 1.19 | 1.52 |
| Hull City | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Burnley | 0.95 | 1.53 | 1.05 | 2.42 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1.00 | 1.79 | 0.42 | 1.79 |
| Coventry City | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
Correct Score Predictions
These projections are generated using advanced statistical models that evaluate team strength, expected‑goals data, and historical scoring patterns. The table below highlights the most probable scorelines based on current performance indicators and model‑driven probability weighting.
| Date | League | Home Team | Away Team | Home Score | Away Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | AFC Bournemouth | Brentford | 2 | 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | Chelsea | Hull City | 1 | 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | Crystal Palace | Ipswich Town | 2 | 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | Liverpool | Fulham | 2 | 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | Tottenham Hotspur | Everton | 1 | 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | Premier League | Sunderland | Arsenal | 1 | 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | Premier League | Coventry City | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | Premier League | Manchester United | Manchester City | 2 | 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | Premier League | Leeds United | Newcastle United | 1 | 1 |
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