AI Football Tips: Liga MX round 27

The passion and color of Mexican football take center stage as the Liga MX Apertura 2026 roars into Jornada 10 over the weekend of September 25–27. With the tournament crossing its midway point, the race for automatic Liguilla spots is intensifying, leaving no room for error as Mexico’s biggest clubs battle to secure favorable postseason seeding and build crucial momentum.

The action-packed weekend kicks off on Friday as newly-returned Atlante hosts Monterrey and Tijuana takes on Atlas. Saturday delivers a slate of heavyweight clashes, headlined by a massive showdown between Cruz Azul and high-flying Toluca, alongside Chivas welcoming Querétaro and Tigres battling Puebla. Sunday rounds out the matchday with Pumas facing Atlético de San Luis at the UNAM, before the weekend concludes with Necaxa testing their mettle against giants América. Explore our advanced AI-driven match predictions, detailed team statistics, and data analytics for every encounter across this thrilling Liga MX weekend.

Full Time Results and Asian Handicap

In the table below you will find our AI prediccions for Liga MX round 27. Asian refers to the recomended asian handicap line.

Date League Home Team Away Team Prediction Asian
2026-09-26 Liga MX Atlante Monterrey H +0.5
2026-09-26 Liga MX Tijuana Atlas H 1X2
2026-09-26 Liga MX Cruz Azul Toluca H 0
2026-09-26 Liga MX Guadalajara Querétaro H No bet
2026-09-27 Liga MX Santos Laguna Pachuca H +0.25
2026-09-27 Liga MX Tigres UANL Puebla H 1X2
2026-09-27 Liga MX Pumas UNAM Atlético San Luis H 1X2
2026-09-28 Liga MX León Juárez H 1X2
2026-09-28 Liga MX Necaxa América H +0.5

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Both Teams to Score

BTS (Both Teams to Score) is a popular betting market in sports, especially in soccer. In a BTS bet, you’re wagering on whether both teams in a match will score at least one goal each. The table below shows the BTS stats for the home team at home and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team BTS Home (%) BTS Away (%) BTS Target BTS No Target
2026-09-26 Atlante Monterrey 50 33 2.62 1.62
2026-09-26 Tijuana Atlas 40 50 1.85 2.18
2026-09-26 Cruz Azul Toluca 60 25 1.99 2.02
2026-09-26 Guadalajara Querétaro 25 50 2.35 1.74
2026-09-27 Santos Laguna Pachuca 25 20 2.22 1.82
2026-09-27 Tigres UANL Puebla 67 40 2.46 1.68
2026-09-27 Pumas UNAM Atlético San Luis 50 50 1.98 2.02
2026-09-28 León Juárez 25 50 2.66 1.60
2026-09-28 Necaxa América 80 75 1.56 2.78

Totals

The table below shows the goal averages for each encounter based on home teams average performance (goals scored and conceded) at home, and away teams average performance away. We use poisson distribution to calculate probabilities for over and under 2.5 goal. For your convienence we have converted the probabilities to decimal odds.

Date League Home Team Away Team +2.5 target odds -2.5 target odds
2026-09-26 Liga MX Atlante Monterrey 1.58 2.74
2026-09-26 Liga MX Tijuana Atlas 1.80 2.25
2026-09-26 Liga MX Cruz Azul Toluca 2.23 1.81
2026-09-26 Liga MX Guadalajara Querétaro 1.46 3.16
2026-09-27 Liga MX Santos Laguna Pachuca 1.61 2.64
2026-09-27 Liga MX Tigres UANL Puebla 1.50 3.00
2026-09-27 Liga MX Pumas UNAM Atlético San Luis 1.73 2.38
2026-09-28 Liga MX León Juárez 1.29 4.40
2026-09-28 Liga MX Necaxa América 3.83 1.35

First Half Goals

The table below shows estimated first-half goal probabilities using Poisson distribution. HT Avg is the expected number of goals before half-time. O/U 0.5 FH and O/U 1.5 FH are the corresponding over/under odds for the first half.

Home Team Away Team HT Avg O 0.5 FH U 0.5 FH O 1.5 FH U 1.5 FH
Atlante Monterrey 0.57 2.29 1.77 8.86 1.13
Tijuana Atlas 1.15 1.47 3.15 3.14 1.47
Cruz Azul Toluca 0.34 3.44 1.41 21.24 1.05
Guadalajara Querétaro 1.00 1.58 2.73 3.76 1.36
Santos Laguna Pachuca 0.00 999.00 1.00 999.00 1.00
Tigres UANL Puebla 1.55 1.27 4.70 2.18 1.85
Pumas UNAM Atlético San Luis 0.84 1.76 2.32 4.85 1.26
León Juárez 1.88 1.18 6.59 1.78 2.28
Necaxa América 0.34 3.44 1.41 21.24 1.05

Early Goals (First 15 Minutes)

The table below shows the probability of a goal being scored in the first 15 minutes. EG Home/Away (%) is the historical frequency across all matches for each team. Poisson ≥1 (%) is the model-estimated probability of at least one early goal in this fixture.

Home Team Away Team EG Home (%) EG Away (%) Poisson ≥1 (%)
Atlante Monterrey 22.2 37.5 28.0
Tijuana Atlas 0.0 33.3 0.0
Cruz Azul Toluca 11.1 22.2 9.3
Guadalajara Querétaro 33.3 25.0 28.0
Santos Laguna Pachuca 22.2 33.3 25.4
Tigres UANL Puebla 44.4 22.2 32.3
Pumas UNAM Atlético San Luis 22.2 44.4 32.3
León Juárez 11.1 33.3 13.6
Necaxa América 22.2 12.5 10.4

Corners Over/Under 9.5

The table below shows the predicted corner totals for each fixture using strength-of-schedule adjusted ratings. Corner Avg is the expected total corners. +9.5 and -9.5 odds are the model-estimated decimal odds for over and under 9.5 total corners.

Home Team Away Team Corner Avg +9.5 odds -9.5 odds
Atlante Monterrey 9.04 2.40 1.71
Tijuana Atlas 13.13 1.21 5.69
Cruz Azul Toluca 13.01 1.23 5.44
Guadalajara Querétaro 11.92 1.37 3.74
Santos Laguna Pachuca 11.65 1.41 3.42
Tigres UANL Puebla 7.80 3.73 1.37
Pumas UNAM Atlético San Luis 16.58 1.04 23.87
León Juárez 8.51 2.84 1.54
Necaxa América 14.72 1.10 10.58

We also have calculated the average goals scored and conceded for the teams. See the table below.

Team Home Goals Home Conceded Away Goals Away Conceded
Toluca 3.00 1.60 1.25 0.25
América 2.50 0.50 1.75 1.50
Guadalajara 2.25 1.00 1.60 0.80
Cruz Azul 1.80 1.80 1.75 1.50
Monterrey 2.20 1.20 1.00 1.33
Pachuca 1.50 2.00 1.80 0.40
Tijuana 1.60 0.60 1.33 2.33
Atlas 1.00 1.60 2.00 1.75
Querétaro 1.25 1.50 1.50 0.50
León 1.75 0.75 1.00 1.40
Pumas UNAM 1.00 1.25 1.60 1.60
Atlético San Luis 1.20 1.60 1.25 2.00
Puebla 1.25 1.25 1.20 1.20
Necaxa 1.20 1.60 1.00 2.00
Santos Laguna 0.50 0.75 1.40 2.40
Tigres UANL 1.67 1.00 0.67 1.67
Atlante 0.50 1.25 1.20 1.60
Juárez 0.80 2.00 0.50 3.25

Correct Score Predictions

These projections are generated using advanced statistical models that evaluate team strength, expected‑goals data, and historical scoring patterns. The table below highlights the most probable scorelines based on current performance indicators and model‑driven probability weighting.

Date League Home Team Away Team Home Score Away Score
2026-09-26 Liga MX Atlante Monterrey 1 1
2026-09-26 Liga MX Tijuana Atlas 1 2
2026-09-26 Liga MX Cruz Azul Toluca 1 1
2026-09-26 Liga MX Guadalajara Querétaro 1 1
2026-09-27 Liga MX Santos Laguna Pachuca 1 1
2026-09-27 Liga MX Tigres UANL Puebla 1 1
2026-09-27 Liga MX Pumas UNAM Atlético San Luis 1 1
2026-09-28 Liga MX León Juárez 6 0
2026-09-28 Liga MX Necaxa América 1 2


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