The unforgiving battlegrounds of England’s fourth tier are set for another dramatic weekend as EFL League Two rolls into October with a crucial slate of fixtures. As the autumn weather begins to test the mettle of squads up and down the country, the early-season jousting is over. Teams are now desperate to assert their dominance in the promotion race, string together consistent results, and pull away from the dreaded bottom of the table in one of football’s most fiercely contested divisions.
The action on Saturday, October 3, delivers plenty of intrigue, kicking off with an early showdown between Chesterfield and Tranmere Rovers. The afternoon slate is packed with compelling matchups, highlighted by Exeter City taking on Rotherham United and a heavyweight clash between Crewe Alexandra and Bristol Rovers. Elsewhere, Salford City welcomes Fleetwood Town in a critical test, while Rochdale meets Swindon Town and Grimsby Town battles Shrewsbury Town. Explore our advanced AI-driven match predictions, detailed team statistics, and data analytics for every hard-fought encounter across this thrilling League Two round.
Full Time Results and Asian Handicap
In the table below you will find our AI prediccions for EFL League Two round 9. Asian refers to the recomended asian handicap line.
| Date | League | Home Team | Away Team | Prediction | Asian |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Chesterfield | Tranmere Rovers | H | 1X2 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Accrington Stanley | Cheltenham Town | H | -0.25 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Crewe Alexandra | Bristol Rovers | A | -0.25 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Colchester United | Port Vale | H | 0 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Exeter City | Rotherham United | H | 0 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Salford City | Fleetwood Town | H | 1X2 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Gillingham | Newport County | H | 1X2 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Grimsby Town | Shrewsbury Town | H | 1X2 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Northampton Town | Oldham Athletic | H | 0 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Rochdale | Swindon Town | H | -0.25 |
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Both Teams to Score
BTS (Both Teams to Score) is a popular betting market in sports, especially in soccer. In a BTS bet, you’re wagering on whether both teams in a match will score at least one goal each. The table below shows the BTS stats for the home team at home and the away team away.
| Date | Home Team | Away Team | BTS Home (%) | BTS Away (%) | BTS Target | BTS No Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Chesterfield | Tranmere Rovers | 50 | 50 | 1.54 | 2.84 |
| 2026-10-03 | Accrington Stanley | Cheltenham Town | 75 | 100 | 1.60 | 2.65 |
| 2026-10-03 | Crewe Alexandra | Bristol Rovers | 75 | 25 | 2.50 | 1.66 |
| 2026-10-03 | Colchester United | Port Vale | 75 | 25 | 2.35 | 1.74 |
| 2026-10-03 | Exeter City | Rotherham United | 25 | 50 | 1.45 | 3.20 |
| 2026-10-03 | Salford City | Fleetwood Town | 25 | 75 | 1.65 | 2.54 |
| 2026-10-03 | Gillingham | Newport County | 25 | 50 | 1.65 | 2.53 |
| 2026-10-03 | Grimsby Town | Shrewsbury Town | 25 | 25 | 1.80 | 2.25 |
| 2026-10-03 | Northampton Town | Oldham Athletic | 25 | 50 | 2.49 | 1.67 |
| 2026-10-03 | Rochdale | Swindon Town | 50 | 0 | 2.07 | 1.94 |
Totals
The table below shows the goal averages for each encounter based on home teams average performance (goals scored and conceded) at home, and away teams average performance away. We use poisson distribution to calculate probabilities for over and under 2.5 goal. For your convienence we have converted the probabilities to decimal odds.
| Date | League | Home Team | Away Team | +2.5 target odds | -2.5 target odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Chesterfield | Tranmere Rovers | 2.38 | 1.73 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Accrington Stanley | Cheltenham Town | 2.18 | 1.85 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Crewe Alexandra | Bristol Rovers | 3.10 | 1.48 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Colchester United | Port Vale | 3.06 | 1.49 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Exeter City | Rotherham United | 2.91 | 1.52 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Salford City | Fleetwood Town | 3.08 | 1.48 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Gillingham | Newport County | 2.95 | 1.51 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Grimsby Town | Shrewsbury Town | 2.54 | 1.65 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Northampton Town | Oldham Athletic | 4.42 | 1.29 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Rochdale | Swindon Town | 1.86 | 2.16 |
First Half Goals
The table below shows estimated first-half goal probabilities using Poisson distribution. HT Avg is the expected number of goals before half-time. O/U 0.5 FH and O/U 1.5 FH are the corresponding over/under odds for the first half.
| Home Team | Away Team | HT Avg | O 0.5 FH | U 0.5 FH | O 1.5 FH | U 1.5 FH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | Tranmere Rovers | 0.79 | 1.84 | 2.20 | 5.36 | 1.23 |
| Accrington Stanley | Cheltenham Town | 1.45 | 1.31 | 4.28 | 2.34 | 1.74 |
| Crewe Alexandra | Bristol Rovers | 1.26 | 1.40 | 3.52 | 2.79 | 1.56 |
| Colchester United | Port Vale | 0.73 | 1.93 | 2.07 | 6.02 | 1.20 |
| Exeter City | Rotherham United | 0.62 | 2.17 | 1.86 | 7.82 | 1.15 |
| Salford City | Fleetwood Town | 0.87 | 1.72 | 2.39 | 4.61 | 1.28 |
| Gillingham | Newport County | 0.60 | 2.22 | 1.82 | 8.22 | 1.14 |
| Grimsby Town | Shrewsbury Town | 2.10 | 1.14 | 8.16 | 1.61 | 2.63 |
| Northampton Town | Oldham Athletic | 0.70 | 1.99 | 2.01 | 6.47 | 1.18 |
| Rochdale | Swindon Town | 0.98 | 1.60 | 2.66 | 3.90 | 1.34 |
Early Goals (First 15 Minutes)
The table below shows the probability of a goal being scored in the first 15 minutes. EG Home/Away (%) is the historical frequency across all matches for each team. Poisson ≥1 (%) is the model-estimated probability of at least one early goal in this fixture.
| Home Team | Away Team | EG Home (%) | EG Away (%) | Poisson ≥1 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | Tranmere Rovers | 25.0 | 12.5 | 10.0 |
| Accrington Stanley | Cheltenham Town | 62.5 | 50.0 | 65.0 |
| Crewe Alexandra | Bristol Rovers | 12.5 | 12.5 | 5.1 |
| Colchester United | Port Vale | 12.5 | 14.3 | 5.8 |
| Exeter City | Rotherham United | 25.0 | 25.0 | 18.9 |
| Salford City | Fleetwood Town | 37.5 | 37.5 | 37.6 |
| Gillingham | Newport County | 25.0 | 25.0 | 18.9 |
| Grimsby Town | Shrewsbury Town | 37.5 | 25.0 | 27.0 |
| Northampton Town | Oldham Athletic | 28.6 | 25.0 | 21.3 |
| Rochdale | Swindon Town | 37.5 | 37.5 | 37.6 |
Corners Over/Under 9.5
The table below shows the predicted corner totals for each fixture using strength-of-schedule adjusted ratings. Corner Avg is the expected total corners. +9.5 and -9.5 odds are the model-estimated decimal odds for over and under 9.5 total corners.
| Home Team | Away Team | Corner Avg | +9.5 odds | -9.5 odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | Tranmere Rovers | 9.63 | 2.04 | 1.96 |
| Accrington Stanley | Cheltenham Town | 10.46 | 1.71 | 2.42 |
| Crewe Alexandra | Bristol Rovers | 10.96 | 1.56 | 2.78 |
| Colchester United | Port Vale | 9.82 | 1.95 | 2.05 |
| Exeter City | Rotherham United | 9.44 | 2.14 | 1.87 |
| Salford City | Fleetwood Town | 10.65 | 1.65 | 2.55 |
| Gillingham | Newport County | 7.91 | 3.55 | 1.39 |
| Grimsby Town | Shrewsbury Town | 11.17 | 1.51 | 2.96 |
| Northampton Town | Oldham Athletic | 8.76 | 2.61 | 1.62 |
| Rochdale | Swindon Town | 9.81 | 1.96 | 2.04 |
We also have calculated the average goals scored and conceded for the teams. See the table below.
| Team | Home Goals | Home Conceded | Away Goals | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet | 2.50 | 1.25 | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| York City | 3.00 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| Cheltenham Town | 2.25 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Bristol Rovers | 2.25 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Grimsby Town | 1.75 | 0.50 | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| Salford City | 1.00 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Newport County | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Accrington Stanley | 1.75 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Chesterfield | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Gillingham | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Walsall | 1.25 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Rotherham United | 1.75 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Colchester United | 1.25 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 2.25 |
| Tranmere Rovers | 1.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Fleetwood Town | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| Oldham Athletic | 1.75 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.75 |
| Swindon Town | 2.25 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Rochdale | 1.75 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.25 |
| Crewe Alexandra | 1.25 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Shrewsbury Town | 1.50 | 1.25 | 0.25 | 2.00 |
| Crawley Town | 0.33 | 2.00 | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Exeter City | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 1.25 |
| Northampton Town | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| Port Vale | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.25 | 2.00 |
Correct Score Predictions
These projections are generated using advanced statistical models that evaluate team strength, expected‑goals data, and historical scoring patterns. The table below highlights the most probable scorelines based on current performance indicators and model‑driven probability weighting.
| Date | League | Home Team | Away Team | Home Score | Away Score | Score Prob (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Chesterfield | Tranmere Rovers | 1 | 1 | 13.9 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Accrington Stanley | Cheltenham Town | 1 | 1 | 12.7 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Crewe Alexandra | Bristol Rovers | 1 | 0 | 14.3 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Colchester United | Port Vale | 1 | 1 | 14.7 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Exeter City | Rotherham United | 0 | 1 | 13.7 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Salford City | Fleetwood Town | 1 | 1 | 14.3 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Gillingham | Newport County | 0 | 0 | 15.5 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Grimsby Town | Shrewsbury Town | 1 | 1 | 14.8 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Northampton Town | Oldham Athletic | 1 | 1 | 14.9 |
| 2026-10-03 | EFL League Two | Rochdale | Swindon Town | 2 | 0 | 11.6 |


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