English Football

AI Football Tips: EFL League Two round 11

The relentless grit, bruising physical battles, and incredible unpredictability of England’s fourth tier take center stage as EFL League Two dives into a full-throttle Saturday of action on October 17. As the 2026/27 campaign marches deeper into the grueling autumn grind, the table is beginning to separate the genuine promotion chasers from those facing an arduous battle for survival. With every single point fiercely contested from the opening whistle to stoppage time, the margin between triumph and heartbreak remains razor-thin.

Saturday’s heavy-hitting schedule gets underway with an electric pair of lunchtime kickoffs, featuring Shrewsbury Town locking horns with Bristol Rovers and Fleetwood Town hosting high-flying Rotherham United. The afternoon slate promises even more fireworks, headlined by a fierce, high-stakes battle at Vale Park where Port Vale takes on Chesterfield, while Crewe Alexandra welcomes Rochdale in a classic northwest duel. Elsewhere, Prenton Park will be rocking as Tranmere Rovers clashes with Barnet, alongside Swindon Town meeting Walsall and Oldham Athletic facing Cheltenham Town. Explore our advanced AI-driven match predictions, detailed team statistics, and data analytics for every hard-fought encounter across this thrilling League Two round.

Full Time Results and Asian Handicap

In the table below you will find our AI prediccions for EFL League Two round 11. Asian refers to the recomended asian handicap line.

Date League Home Team Away Team Prediction Asian
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Shrewsbury Town Bristol Rovers H +0.25
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Fleetwood Town Rotherham United H -0.25
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Accrington Stanley Gillingham H -0.25
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Tranmere Rovers Barnet A 1X2
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Oldham Athletic Cheltenham Town H 1X2
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Port Vale Chesterfield H 0
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Colchester United Exeter City H 1X2
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Salford City Crawley Town H No bet
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Crewe Alexandra Rochdale H 1X2
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Grimsby Town Northampton Town H 1X2
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Newport County York City A 1X2
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Swindon Town Walsall H 0

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Both Teams to Score

BTS (Both Teams to Score) is a popular betting market in sports, especially in soccer. In a BTS bet, you’re wagering on whether both teams in a match will score at least one goal each. The table below shows the BTS stats for the home team at home and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team BTS Home (%) BTS Away (%) BTS Target BTS No Target
2026-10-17 Shrewsbury Town Bristol Rovers 40 40 3.29 1.44
2026-10-17 Fleetwood Town Rotherham United 60 40 1.84 2.19
2026-10-17 Accrington Stanley Gillingham 60 60 1.59 2.71
2026-10-17 Tranmere Rovers Barnet 60 100 1.59 2.69
2026-10-17 Oldham Athletic Cheltenham Town 40 80 2.41 1.71
2026-10-17 Port Vale Chesterfield 25 80 1.65 2.54
2026-10-17 Colchester United Exeter City 75 20 1.52 2.94
2026-10-17 Salford City Crawley Town 20 75 1.88 2.14
2026-10-17 Crewe Alexandra Rochdale 80 40 1.72 2.38
2026-10-17 Grimsby Town Northampton Town 40 50 1.57 2.75
2026-10-17 Newport County York City 60 75 1.74 2.35
2026-10-17 Swindon Town Walsall 80 60 1.74 2.35

Totals

The table below shows the goal averages for each encounter based on home teams average performance (goals scored and conceded) at home, and away teams average performance away. We use poisson distribution to calculate probabilities for over and under 2.5 goal. For your convienence we have converted the probabilities to decimal odds.

Date League Home Team Away Team +2.5 target odds -2.5 target odds
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Shrewsbury Town Bristol Rovers 3.68 1.37
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Fleetwood Town Rotherham United 2.44 1.69
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Accrington Stanley Gillingham 2.07 1.93
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Tranmere Rovers Barnet 2.58 1.63
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Oldham Athletic Cheltenham Town 2.89 1.53
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Port Vale Chesterfield 2.84 1.54
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Colchester United Exeter City 2.04 1.96
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Salford City Crawley Town 3.34 1.43
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Crewe Alexandra Rochdale 2.24 1.81
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Grimsby Town Northampton Town 2.19 1.84
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Newport County York City 2.28 1.78
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Swindon Town Walsall 2.09 1.91

First Half Goals

The table below shows estimated first-half goal probabilities using Poisson distribution. HT Avg is the expected number of goals before half-time. O/U 0.5 FH and O/U 1.5 FH are the corresponding over/under odds for the first half.

Home Team Away Team HT Avg O 0.5 FH U 0.5 FH O 1.5 FH U 1.5 FH
Shrewsbury Town Bristol Rovers 1.14 1.47 3.11 3.18 1.46
Fleetwood Town Rotherham United 0.71 1.96 2.04 6.24 1.19
Accrington Stanley Gillingham 1.20 1.43 3.32 2.97 1.51
Tranmere Rovers Barnet 1.07 1.53 2.90 3.47 1.41
Oldham Athletic Cheltenham Town 0.89 1.70 2.44 4.46 1.29
Port Vale Chesterfield 0.80 1.81 2.23 5.20 1.24
Colchester United Exeter City 0.53 2.44 1.70 10.12 1.11
Salford City Crawley Town 0.73 1.93 2.08 6.00 1.20
Crewe Alexandra Rochdale 1.49 1.29 4.46 2.27 1.79
Grimsby Town Northampton Town 1.65 1.24 5.23 2.03 1.97
Newport County York City 0.88 1.70 2.42 4.51 1.28
Swindon Town Walsall 0.64 2.13 1.89 7.48 1.15

Early Goals (First 15 Minutes)

The table below shows the probability of a goal being scored in the first 15 minutes. EG Home/Away (%) is the historical frequency across all matches for each team. Poisson ≥1 (%) is the model-estimated probability of at least one early goal in this fixture.

Home Team Away Team EG Home (%) EG Away (%) Poisson ≥1 (%)
Shrewsbury Town Bristol Rovers 20.0 30.0 18.7
Fleetwood Town Rotherham United 30.0 20.0 18.7
Accrington Stanley Gillingham 50.0 20.0 29.2
Tranmere Rovers Barnet 30.0 50.0 40.4
Oldham Athletic Cheltenham Town 22.2 40.0 26.4
Port Vale Chesterfield 12.5 30.0 12.2
Colchester United Exeter City 11.1 20.0 7.4
Salford City Crawley Town 30.0 37.5 32.2
Crewe Alexandra Rochdale 20.0 40.0 24.1
Grimsby Town Northampton Town 30.0 37.5 32.2
Newport County York City 20.0 55.6 31.9
Swindon Town Walsall 30.0 11.1 10.9

Corners Over/Under 9.5

The table below shows the predicted corner totals for each fixture using strength-of-schedule adjusted ratings. Corner Avg is the expected total corners. +9.5 and -9.5 odds are the model-estimated decimal odds for over and under 9.5 total corners.

Home Team Away Team Corner Avg +9.5 odds -9.5 odds
Shrewsbury Town Bristol Rovers 9.07 2.38 1.73
Fleetwood Town Rotherham United 10.20 1.80 2.26
Accrington Stanley Gillingham 8.82 2.56 1.64
Tranmere Rovers Barnet 9.53 2.09 1.91
Oldham Athletic Cheltenham Town 11.10 1.53 2.89
Port Vale Chesterfield 7.81 3.72 1.37
Colchester United Exeter City 9.47 2.13 1.89
Salford City Crawley Town 10.79 1.61 2.65
Crewe Alexandra Rochdale 11.33 1.48 3.10
Grimsby Town Northampton Town 12.33 1.30 4.28
Newport County York City 11.27 1.49 3.05
Swindon Town Walsall 11.46 1.45 3.23

We also have calculated the average goals scored and conceded for the teams. See the table below.

Team Home Goals Home Conceded Away Goals Away Conceded
Barnet 2.50 1.25 2.50 1.50
York City 2.60 0.80 1.00 1.75
Chesterfield 2.00 1.40 1.40 1.40
Cheltenham Town 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.60
Gillingham 1.20 0.80 1.80 1.20
Bristol Rovers 2.00 1.20 1.00 2.20
Salford City 1.00 0.40 2.00 1.60
Walsall 1.25 0.50 1.40 0.80
Tranmere Rovers 1.60 0.80 1.00 1.80
Grimsby Town 1.60 0.80 1.00 1.40
Accrington Stanley 1.80 1.20 0.80 1.60
Newport County 1.80 0.80 0.80 1.60
Rotherham United 1.60 2.00 0.80 1.20
Crewe Alexandra 1.60 1.00 0.80 0.40
Colchester United 1.25 0.75 1.00 2.00
Rochdale 1.60 1.20 0.60 1.20
Fleetwood Town 1.00 0.80 1.00 1.40
Oldham Athletic 1.40 1.20 0.50 1.75
Crawley Town 0.75 2.00 1.25 1.75
Shrewsbury Town 1.20 1.20 0.60 1.80
Swindon Town 1.80 1.00 0.00 1.80
Exeter City 0.80 0.20 0.40 1.00
Northampton Town 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.25
Port Vale 0.75 0.25 0.25 2.00

Correct Score Predictions

These projections are generated using advanced statistical models that evaluate team strength, expected‑goals data, and historical scoring patterns. The table below highlights the most probable scorelines based on current performance indicators and model‑driven probability weighting.

Date League Home Team Away Team Home Score Away Score Score Prob (%)
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Shrewsbury Town Bristol Rovers 1 0 17.2
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Fleetwood Town Rotherham United 1 1 13.8
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Accrington Stanley Gillingham 1 1 14.0
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Tranmere Rovers Barnet 1 1 13.6
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Oldham Athletic Cheltenham Town 1 1 14.2
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Port Vale Chesterfield 1 1 14.5
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Colchester United Exeter City 1 1 13.2
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Salford City Crawley Town 0 0 18.1
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Crewe Alexandra Rochdale 1 1 13.5
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Grimsby Town Northampton Town 1 1 14.2
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Newport County York City 1 1 13.6
2026-10-17 EFL League Two Swindon Town Walsall 1 1 14.4


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