The passion and color of Mexican football take center stage as the Liga MX Apertura 2026 roars into Jornada 10 over the weekend of September 25–27. With the tournament crossing its midway point, the race for automatic Liguilla spots is intensifying, leaving no room for error as Mexico’s biggest clubs battle to secure favorable postseason seeding and build crucial momentum.
The action-packed weekend kicks off on Friday as newly-returned Atlante hosts Monterrey and Tijuana takes on Atlas. Saturday delivers a slate of heavyweight clashes, headlined by a massive showdown between Cruz Azul and high-flying Toluca, alongside Chivas welcoming Querétaro and Tigres battling Puebla. Sunday rounds out the matchday with Pumas facing Atlético de San Luis at the UNAM, before the weekend concludes with Necaxa testing their mettle against giants América. Explore our advanced AI-driven match predictions, detailed team statistics, and data analytics for every encounter across this thrilling Liga MX weekend.
Full Time Results and Asian Handicap
In the table below you will find our AI prediccions for Liga MX round 27. Asian refers to the recomended asian handicap line.
| Date | League | Home Team | Away Team | Prediction | Asian |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Liga MX | Atlante | Monterrey | H | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-26 | Liga MX | Tijuana | Atlas | H | 1X2 |
| 2026-09-26 | Liga MX | Cruz Azul | Toluca | H | 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | Liga MX | Guadalajara | Querétaro | H | No bet |
| 2026-09-27 | Liga MX | Santos Laguna | Pachuca | H | +0.25 |
| 2026-09-27 | Liga MX | Tigres UANL | Puebla | H | 1X2 |
| 2026-09-27 | Liga MX | Pumas UNAM | Atlético San Luis | H | 1X2 |
| 2026-09-28 | Liga MX | León | Juárez | H | 1X2 |
| 2026-09-28 | Liga MX | Necaxa | América | H | +0.5 |
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Both Teams to Score
BTS (Both Teams to Score) is a popular betting market in sports, especially in soccer. In a BTS bet, you’re wagering on whether both teams in a match will score at least one goal each. The table below shows the BTS stats for the home team at home and the away team away.
| Date | Home Team | Away Team | BTS Home (%) | BTS Away (%) | BTS Target | BTS No Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Atlante | Monterrey | 50 | 33 | 2.62 | 1.62 |
| 2026-09-26 | Tijuana | Atlas | 40 | 50 | 1.85 | 2.18 |
| 2026-09-26 | Cruz Azul | Toluca | 60 | 25 | 1.99 | 2.02 |
| 2026-09-26 | Guadalajara | Querétaro | 25 | 50 | 2.35 | 1.74 |
| 2026-09-27 | Santos Laguna | Pachuca | 25 | 20 | 2.22 | 1.82 |
| 2026-09-27 | Tigres UANL | Puebla | 67 | 40 | 2.46 | 1.68 |
| 2026-09-27 | Pumas UNAM | Atlético San Luis | 50 | 50 | 1.98 | 2.02 |
| 2026-09-28 | León | Juárez | 25 | 50 | 2.66 | 1.60 |
| 2026-09-28 | Necaxa | América | 80 | 75 | 1.56 | 2.78 |
Totals
The table below shows the goal averages for each encounter based on home teams average performance (goals scored and conceded) at home, and away teams average performance away. We use poisson distribution to calculate probabilities for over and under 2.5 goal. For your convienence we have converted the probabilities to decimal odds.
| Date | League | Home Team | Away Team | +2.5 target odds | -2.5 target odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Liga MX | Atlante | Monterrey | 1.58 | 2.74 |
| 2026-09-26 | Liga MX | Tijuana | Atlas | 1.80 | 2.25 |
| 2026-09-26 | Liga MX | Cruz Azul | Toluca | 2.23 | 1.81 |
| 2026-09-26 | Liga MX | Guadalajara | Querétaro | 1.46 | 3.16 |
| 2026-09-27 | Liga MX | Santos Laguna | Pachuca | 1.61 | 2.64 |
| 2026-09-27 | Liga MX | Tigres UANL | Puebla | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | Liga MX | Pumas UNAM | Atlético San Luis | 1.73 | 2.38 |
| 2026-09-28 | Liga MX | León | Juárez | 1.29 | 4.40 |
| 2026-09-28 | Liga MX | Necaxa | América | 3.83 | 1.35 |
First Half Goals
The table below shows estimated first-half goal probabilities using Poisson distribution. HT Avg is the expected number of goals before half-time. O/U 0.5 FH and O/U 1.5 FH are the corresponding over/under odds for the first half.
| Home Team | Away Team | HT Avg | O 0.5 FH | U 0.5 FH | O 1.5 FH | U 1.5 FH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlante | Monterrey | 0.57 | 2.29 | 1.77 | 8.86 | 1.13 |
| Tijuana | Atlas | 1.15 | 1.47 | 3.15 | 3.14 | 1.47 |
| Cruz Azul | Toluca | 0.34 | 3.44 | 1.41 | 21.24 | 1.05 |
| Guadalajara | Querétaro | 1.00 | 1.58 | 2.73 | 3.76 | 1.36 |
| Santos Laguna | Pachuca | 0.00 | 999.00 | 1.00 | 999.00 | 1.00 |
| Tigres UANL | Puebla | 1.55 | 1.27 | 4.70 | 2.18 | 1.85 |
| Pumas UNAM | Atlético San Luis | 0.84 | 1.76 | 2.32 | 4.85 | 1.26 |
| León | Juárez | 1.88 | 1.18 | 6.59 | 1.78 | 2.28 |
| Necaxa | América | 0.34 | 3.44 | 1.41 | 21.24 | 1.05 |
Early Goals (First 15 Minutes)
The table below shows the probability of a goal being scored in the first 15 minutes. EG Home/Away (%) is the historical frequency across all matches for each team. Poisson ≥1 (%) is the model-estimated probability of at least one early goal in this fixture.
| Home Team | Away Team | EG Home (%) | EG Away (%) | Poisson ≥1 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlante | Monterrey | 22.2 | 37.5 | 28.0 |
| Tijuana | Atlas | 0.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 |
| Cruz Azul | Toluca | 11.1 | 22.2 | 9.3 |
| Guadalajara | Querétaro | 33.3 | 25.0 | 28.0 |
| Santos Laguna | Pachuca | 22.2 | 33.3 | 25.4 |
| Tigres UANL | Puebla | 44.4 | 22.2 | 32.3 |
| Pumas UNAM | Atlético San Luis | 22.2 | 44.4 | 32.3 |
| León | Juárez | 11.1 | 33.3 | 13.6 |
| Necaxa | América | 22.2 | 12.5 | 10.4 |
Corners Over/Under 9.5
The table below shows the predicted corner totals for each fixture using strength-of-schedule adjusted ratings. Corner Avg is the expected total corners. +9.5 and -9.5 odds are the model-estimated decimal odds for over and under 9.5 total corners.
| Home Team | Away Team | Corner Avg | +9.5 odds | -9.5 odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlante | Monterrey | 9.04 | 2.40 | 1.71 |
| Tijuana | Atlas | 13.13 | 1.21 | 5.69 |
| Cruz Azul | Toluca | 13.01 | 1.23 | 5.44 |
| Guadalajara | Querétaro | 11.92 | 1.37 | 3.74 |
| Santos Laguna | Pachuca | 11.65 | 1.41 | 3.42 |
| Tigres UANL | Puebla | 7.80 | 3.73 | 1.37 |
| Pumas UNAM | Atlético San Luis | 16.58 | 1.04 | 23.87 |
| León | Juárez | 8.51 | 2.84 | 1.54 |
| Necaxa | América | 14.72 | 1.10 | 10.58 |
We also have calculated the average goals scored and conceded for the teams. See the table below.
| Team | Home Goals | Home Conceded | Away Goals | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 3.00 | 1.60 | 1.25 | 0.25 |
| América | 2.50 | 0.50 | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Guadalajara | 2.25 | 1.00 | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Cruz Azul | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Monterrey | 2.20 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Pachuca | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| Tijuana | 1.60 | 0.60 | 1.33 | 2.33 |
| Atlas | 1.00 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| Querétaro | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| León | 1.75 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Pumas UNAM | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Atlético San Luis | 1.20 | 1.60 | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| Puebla | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Necaxa | 1.20 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Santos Laguna | 0.50 | 0.75 | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| Tigres UANL | 1.67 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| Atlante | 0.50 | 1.25 | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Juárez | 0.80 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 3.25 |
Correct Score Predictions
These projections are generated using advanced statistical models that evaluate team strength, expected‑goals data, and historical scoring patterns. The table below highlights the most probable scorelines based on current performance indicators and model‑driven probability weighting.
| Date | League | Home Team | Away Team | Home Score | Away Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Liga MX | Atlante | Monterrey | 1 | 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | Liga MX | Tijuana | Atlas | 1 | 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | Liga MX | Cruz Azul | Toluca | 1 | 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | Liga MX | Guadalajara | Querétaro | 1 | 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | Liga MX | Santos Laguna | Pachuca | 1 | 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | Liga MX | Tigres UANL | Puebla | 1 | 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | Liga MX | Pumas UNAM | Atlético San Luis | 1 | 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | Liga MX | León | Juárez | 6 | 0 |
| 2026-09-28 | Liga MX | Necaxa | América | 1 | 2 |


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