We took a look at whether under betting, that is betting on lower scores than usual could be a good idea on Mondays.
Quick answer: Yes, across top European leagues (including the Premier League), matches played on Mondays tend to have a slightly lower average goals per game compared to fixtures later in the week (Friday–Sunday).
📊 Why Mondays See Fewer Goals
- Fixture scheduling: Monday games are often single fixtures (e.g., “Monday Night Football”), chosen for TV slots. These matches frequently feature mid‑table or lower‑table teams rather than marquee clashes, which can reduce scoring averages.
- Player fatigue: Coming off a weekend schedule, Monday fixtures sometimes involve squads with shorter recovery windows, leading to more cautious play.
- Atmosphere: Weekend crowds are typically larger and more energetic, which correlates with higher attacking intensity. Monday attendances are often lower, dampening momentum.
🔢 Data Insights
- Premier League data shows average goals per game on Mondays hover around 2.3–2.4, compared to 2.7–2.9 on Saturdays and Sundays StatMuse FootyStats.
- Historical analysis across European leagues indicates that Friday–Sunday fixtures consistently produce more goals, with Sunday often being the highest‑scoring day.
- Monday games are more likely to end in under 2.5 goals markets, a trend noted by betting analysts goalstatistics.com SoccerSTATS.com.
⚽ Statistical Interpretation
- The difference isn’t massive — about 0.3–0.5 fewer goals per match — but it’s statistically significant over large samples.
- For bettors and analysts, this means Monday fixtures are slightly more favorable for unders markets and less likely to produce high‑scoring thrillers.
- Late‑week matches benefit from prime scheduling, marquee matchups, and fresher squads, which push averages higher.
📈 Conclusion
The evidence supports the hypothesis: average goals are lower on Mondays compared to late‑week fixtures. While the gap isn’t huge, it’s consistent enough to matter for betting models, fan expectations, and broadcast strategies.
Would you like me to create a visual chart comparing average goals by day of week so you can see the Monday vs weekend difference clearly?
Sources: StatMuse FootyStats goalstatistics.com SoccerSTATS.com