English Football

AI Football Tips: Premier League round 7

The electric speed, intense tribal passion, and unparalleled global drama of English football return to center stage as the Premier League unleashes an extraordinary weekend of fixtures from October 17–19. As the 2026/27 campaign marches deep into the autumn grind, the battle for the title, UEFA Champions League positions, and top-flight survival is reaching an absolute fever pitch. With iconic rivalries steeped in generations of history taking center stage, this round promises sheer theater from the opening kickoff to Monday night’s finale.

Sunday’s schedule is nothing short of volcanic, headlined by an emotionally charged edition of the Roses Derby at a roaring Elland Road, where Leeds United collides with arch-rivals Manchester United. The rivalry drama doubles with the fierce hostilities of the M23 Derby as Brighton & Hove Albion hosts Crystal Palace, before title-chasing Arsenal navigates a treacherous trip to face Nottingham Forest at the City Ground. Saturday brings high-voltage action of its own, kicking off with Everton taking on Chelsea, followed by a monumental European showdown at St. James’ Park between Newcastle United and Aston Villa, while Liverpool travels to face Brentford and Manchester City welcomes Ipswich Town. Explore our advanced AI-driven match predictions, detailed team statistics, and data analytics for every electrifying encounter across this premier weekend of English football.

Full Time Results and Asian Handicap

In the table below you will find our AI prediccions for Premier League round 7. Asian refers to the recomended asian handicap line.

Date League Home Team Away Team Prediction Asian
2026-10-17 Premier League Everton Chelsea H +0.25
2026-10-17 Premier League Brentford Liverpool A 0
2026-10-17 Premier League Fulham Hull City H 1X2
2026-10-17 Premier League Manchester City Ipswich Town H No bet
2026-10-17 Premier League Newcastle United Aston Villa H -0.25
2026-10-18 Premier League AFC Bournemouth Sunderland H 1X2
2026-10-18 Premier League Brighton & Hove Albion Crystal Palace H 1X2
2026-10-18 Premier League Leeds United Manchester United A 0
2026-10-18 Premier League Nottingham Forest Arsenal H +1
2026-10-19 Premier League Tottenham Hotspur Coventry City H 1X2

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Both Teams to Score

BTS (Both Teams to Score) is a popular betting market in sports, especially in soccer. In a BTS bet, you’re wagering on whether both teams in a match will score at least one goal each. The table below shows the BTS stats for the home team at home and the away team away.

Date Home Team Away Team BTS Home (%) BTS Away (%) BTS Target BTS No Target
2026-10-17 Everton Chelsea 33 67 1.93 2.07
2026-10-17 Brentford Liverpool 33 33 2.18 1.85
2026-10-17 Fulham Hull City 100 67 1.28 4.60
2026-10-17 Manchester City Ipswich Town 67 67 1.69 2.45
2026-10-17 Newcastle United Aston Villa 100 33 1.48 3.06
2026-10-18 AFC Bournemouth Sunderland 67 100 2.57 1.64
2026-10-18 Brighton & Hove Albion Crystal Palace 33 33 1.65 2.53
2026-10-18 Leeds United Manchester United 67 67 2.17 1.86
2026-10-18 Nottingham Forest Arsenal 0 0 1.96 2.04
2026-10-19 Tottenham Hotspur Coventry City 33 0 1.37 3.67

Totals

The table below shows the goal averages for each encounter based on home teams average performance (goals scored and conceded) at home, and away teams average performance away. We use poisson distribution to calculate probabilities for over and under 2.5 goal. For your convienence we have converted the probabilities to decimal odds.

Date League Home Team Away Team +2.5 target odds -2.5 target odds
2026-10-17 Premier League Everton Chelsea 2.52 1.66
2026-10-17 Premier League Brentford Liverpool 1.58 2.72
2026-10-17 Premier League Fulham Hull City 1.54 2.86
2026-10-17 Premier League Manchester City Ipswich Town 3.00 1.50
2026-10-17 Premier League Newcastle United Aston Villa 2.38 1.73
2026-10-18 Premier League AFC Bournemouth Sunderland 1.94 2.06
2026-10-18 Premier League Brighton & Hove Albion Crystal Palace 2.39 1.72
2026-10-18 Premier League Leeds United Manchester United 1.81 2.24
2026-10-18 Premier League Nottingham Forest Arsenal 1.43 3.32
2026-10-19 Premier League Tottenham Hotspur Coventry City 1.45 3.22

First Half Goals

The table below shows estimated first-half goal probabilities using Poisson distribution. HT Avg is the expected number of goals before half-time. O/U 0.5 FH and O/U 1.5 FH are the corresponding over/under odds for the first half.

Home Team Away Team HT Avg O 0.5 FH U 0.5 FH O 1.5 FH U 1.5 FH
Everton Chelsea 1.11 1.49 3.03 3.28 1.44
Brentford Liverpool 0.90 1.69 2.46 4.40 1.29
Fulham Hull City 1.56 1.27 4.77 2.16 1.86
Manchester City Ipswich Town 2.03 1.15 7.58 1.66 2.51
Newcastle United Aston Villa 1.51 1.28 4.54 2.24 1.81
AFC Bournemouth Sunderland 1.55 1.27 4.73 2.17 1.85
Brighton & Hove Albion Crystal Palace 1.71 1.22 5.55 1.96 2.04
Leeds United Manchester United 0.99 1.59 2.69 3.84 1.35
Nottingham Forest Arsenal 0.66 2.08 1.93 7.12 1.16
Tottenham Hotspur Coventry City 0.83 1.78 2.28 4.99 1.25

Early Goals (First 15 Minutes)

The table below shows the probability of a goal being scored in the first 15 minutes. EG Home/Away (%) is the historical frequency across all matches for each team. Poisson ≥1 (%) is the model-estimated probability of at least one early goal in this fixture.

Home Team Away Team EG Home (%) EG Away (%) Poisson ≥1 (%)
Everton Chelsea 16.7 83.3 34.1
Brentford Liverpool 33.3 33.3 28.3
Fulham Hull City 33.3 33.3 28.3
Manchester City Ipswich Town 16.7 50.0 22.1
Newcastle United Aston Villa 66.7 33.3 48.7
AFC Bournemouth Sunderland 33.3 16.7 15.4
Brighton & Hove Albion Crystal Palace 50.0 50.0 52.8
Leeds United Manchester United 16.7 0.0 0.0
Nottingham Forest Arsenal 16.7 33.3 15.4
Tottenham Hotspur Coventry City 16.7 33.3 15.4

Corners Over/Under 9.5

The table below shows the predicted corner totals for each fixture using strength-of-schedule adjusted ratings. Corner Avg is the expected total corners. +9.5 and -9.5 odds are the model-estimated decimal odds for over and under 9.5 total corners.

Home Team Away Team Corner Avg +9.5 odds -9.5 odds
Everton Chelsea 9.00 2.42 1.70
Brentford Liverpool 9.16 2.31 1.76
Fulham Hull City 10.86 1.59 2.70
Manchester City Ipswich Town 10.13 1.82 2.22
Newcastle United Aston Villa 8.70 2.66 1.60
AFC Bournemouth Sunderland 8.53 2.81 1.55
Brighton & Hove Albion Crystal Palace 8.95 2.46 1.69
Leeds United Manchester United 10.06 1.85 2.17
Nottingham Forest Arsenal 8.54 2.81 1.55
Tottenham Hotspur Coventry City 10.44 1.71 2.40

We also have calculated the average goals scored and conceded for the teams. See the table below.

Team Home Goals Home Conceded Away Goals Away Conceded
Brighton & Hove Albion 2.67 0.33 3.33 1.33
Manchester City 2.67 1.33 2.67 0.33
Chelsea 3.67 2.00 1.33 2.33
Brentford 2.33 0.33 1.67 1.67
Newcastle United 2.00 1.67 1.33 2.67
Arsenal 2.33 0.67 1.00 1.00
Manchester United 2.00 1.33 1.00 1.67
Crystal Palace 2.00 2.67 1.00 1.33
Ipswich Town 1.33 1.33 1.67 2.67
Hull City 1.33 0.67 1.33 1.33
Everton 1.67 0.67 1.00 1.00
Leeds United 1.67 0.67 1.00 1.00
Liverpool 0.67 1.67 1.67 0.67
AFC Bournemouth 1.00 1.33 1.33 3.00
Fulham 1.67 2.33 0.33 1.00
Aston Villa 1.00 1.67 1.00 2.00
Sunderland 0.33 1.33 1.67 2.67
Coventry City 1.33 2.33 0.33 1.33
Nottingham Forest 0.00 0.67 1.67 2.00
Tottenham Hotspur 0.67 1.67 0.33 1.33

Correct Score Predictions

These projections are generated using advanced statistical models that evaluate team strength, expected‑goals data, and historical scoring patterns. The table below highlights the most probable scorelines based on current performance indicators and model‑driven probability weighting.

Date League Home Team Away Team Home Score Away Score Score Prob (%)
2026-10-17 Premier League Everton Chelsea 1 1 13.6
2026-10-17 Premier League Brentford Liverpool 1 1 14.5
2026-10-17 Premier League Fulham Hull City 1 1 10.5
2026-10-17 Premier League Manchester City Ipswich Town 0 0 18.8
2026-10-17 Premier League Newcastle United Aston Villa 1 1 13.0
2026-10-18 Premier League AFC Bournemouth Sunderland 1 1 12.6
2026-10-18 Premier League Brighton & Hove Albion Crystal Palace 1 0 23.7
2026-10-18 Premier League Leeds United Manchester United 1 1 13.6
2026-10-18 Premier League Nottingham Forest Arsenal 1 2 9.1
2026-10-19 Premier League Tottenham Hotspur Coventry City 1 1 13.3


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